Discussion:
OT speculation - Dawn of a True Space Age is Near
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a425couple
2018-06-01 15:43:59 UTC
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https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/05/dawn-of-a-true-space-age-is-near.html

Dawn of a True Space Age is Near
brian wang | May 29, 2018

I will illustrate the massive game-changer that the SpaceX BFR will be.
I will show this by describing how we can have millions of people in
space by the 2040s.

Gerard O’Neill visions from the 1970s failed to be realized because
launch costs in the 1970s were 300 times too high. SpaceX BFR will cut
costs 400 times lower than Saturn V.

Within a few years, space capabilities will transform.

How many people have ever been to space? .. about 540 over 60 years
How long have they stayed? Only about 15 days or less only a few handful
have stayed over 200 days

How Many could we have in living in working in space by 2045? the
population the USA had in 1776 at its founding .. 2.5 million people.

Game changers – SpaceX BFR (bigger and fully reusable) and new solutions
for radiation and gravity problems. These new solutions provide another
2000X gain.

Andy Grove, the former CEO of Intel, talked about the world-changing
power of 10X forces. What was a wind with a 10X multiplier becomes a
typhoon.

Here we will leverage 2000X multiplier forces.

Up to now rockets have been the equivalent of the Hindenburg

The Hindenburg completed its trip and was destroyed while docking for
landing.
At the end of every trip, rockets are destroyed.
About 96% of the time safely.

The SpaceX Big Falcon Rocket is the key

The SpaceX BFR will be 100% reusable and will be like a 747 with 150
tons of payload.

SpaceX Falcon 9 launches are already about 7 times lower cost than
United Launch or other space competitors.

Big Falcon Rocket is targeting costs of $10 million per launch for per
kilogram costs of $66 per kilogram. 400X less than Saturn V and Space
shuttle and 100X less than current competitors.

There have been 5200 successful orbital launches from the 1950s to today
(http://spacelaunchreport.com/logdec.html)
Rapid relaunch three times a week means twenty BFR could launch 3000
times per year. Each time lifting about ten times the payload. 100X the
mass into space.

1000 SpaceX BFR launches would cost $10 billion versus $40 billion for a
few dozen space shuttle launches of the International space station.

We will be getting 1000 times the capability in space.

New Multi-Trillion dollar space industries

High-speed internet satellites will provide multi-gigabit internet.
100-1000X faster than cable, dsl or mobile phone.

The FCC just approved SpaceX launch of thousands of internet satellite
in a network to be operating by 2023

They will be in low earth orbit for fast response and high bandwidth.
They will reach every square inch of the planet.
5 billion subscribers at $40 per month average would be $2 trillion per
year in revenue.
Huge profits will help fund greater visions.

Fifty SpaceX BFR make stations to hold 2.5 million people by the 2040s

* 30,000 launches at $10 million a piece is $300 billion which 1.5 times
the cost of 135 Space Shuttle launches
* Over $200 billion was spent on the International Space Station which
only has from about 3-8 people
* Once SpaceX BFR is proven safe and reliable it could transport 200-400
people at $25K to $50K per ticket
* A $20 billion per year colonization and industrialization

Al Globus at the National Space Society – we can put space stations in
Equatorial Low Earth Orbit would eliminate the need for radiation
shielding. Radiation shielding is 95% of the weight of many space
station designs. (20X)
About 3000 Falcon BFR launches to build an 18,000 person space station
in ELEO with no gravity or radiation issues.
Easily fit over 200 such stations around the equator. 5 rings 250 miles
up to 370 miles every 30miles. 600 miles apart.
If each BFR flew four times per week then 50 Falcon BFR could transport
the materials to build those settlements.
Starting in 2023 with the first BFR and building about 10 Falcon BFR per
year then full orbital production rate could be achieved by 2028. Around
2040, all the settlements in ELEO could be completed.

2.5 million people living in the United States’ original 13 States in 1776.
We could make large space stations like what was in the movie 2001, A
Space Odyssey. Stanford space torus. Donut shaped stations 890 meters
across with 18200 people in them.
Another option is double height Kalpana space station that is 224 meters
across holding 16000 people and weighing 380,000 tons.

Some living there, some tourists.
The launch capacity should be there to make over a hundred by 2040. A
population living in space in one gravity environment and with radiation
levels safe for pregnant women.
Quadibloc
2018-06-02 15:10:46 UTC
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Yes, if launch costs of $66 per kilogram are attained, ordinary people could
afford to go to space, and thus the future would start to look like 2001: A Space
Odyssey.

Of course, though, having a goal is not the same as attaining it.

But such goals would not be set, one would expect, unless there was some chance of
at least coming close to them.

John Savard
Lynn McGuire
2018-06-02 19:28:13 UTC
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Post by a425couple
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https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/05/dawn-of-a-true-space-age-is-near.html
Dawn of a True Space Age is Near
brian wang | May 29, 2018
I will illustrate the massive game-changer that the SpaceX BFR will be.
I will show this by describing how we can have millions of people in
space by the 2040s.
BTW, this is not off topic here.

Lynn

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