Discussion:
Investment Banking in SF
(too old to reply)
Al Lal
2012-08-29 23:23:41 UTC
Permalink
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant, and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.

How do you value entire continents or countries? How do you value entire planets or solar systems? How do you value entire Galaxies or universes? How would you value them now, and how will they be valued in the future? These are the kind of questions for which I am looking to answer. I studied business valuation using P/E rations and DCF during my MBA. But there was no methodology for valuing political entities or large areas of land and space.

I read in a recent article that the total stock market capitalization of the top (1000?) US companies is approximately USD 16 trillion. I am not sure what total global market capitalization is, but USA's value is approximately equal to its GDP. Assuming that total business value is approximately equal to total GDP, we can estimate the value of the world's stock market capitalization as equal to world GDP, which I believe is somewhere around USD 55 trillion.

Can country and world market capitalization be used as an estimate for value of the country or planet? In the future could a price to GDP ratio be used to estimate value of a country or planet or other collection of matter?

Now I work in IT, so if there are any economists or financial experts out there, you can contribute to this discussion, and I will not mind at all if you correct me where I am wrong.

I have some other ideas for valuing countries, planets, and other large objects.

You could calculate the earning potential for every living thing that lives and will ever be born, and discount it at an appropriate rate. I believe this method could give wildly different values depending on your assumptions like population growth rates and income growth rates, and whatever value you get would be very high.

You could calculate the value of all land and natural resources. Natural resources exist elsewhere in the solar system besides Earth. Planets, moons, asteroids - they are all rich in natural resources.

A planet also would be valuable if it is capable of sustaining economically active life. This should also be taken into account, along with the duration for which the planet can sustain life. However in the future new technologies may arise that may increase the length of time the planet can sustain life.

What do you think? Do you have any other factors that need to be considered in valuing a country, planet, or solar system?

I had done some rough calculations for the value of the planet based on global income. Like I said, I got a big range of values based on my assumptions. You never know what disaster or miracle is going to happen in the future. Perhaps we should only forecast income for everyone who is alive today and discount it - then I get a value of approximately USD 1,500 trillion.

I hope these technical details did not bore you. In the future business and investment banking will operate on a much larger scale and be more interesting.

Sovereign solar systems could sell of asteroids or moons to foreign organizations to raise money due to a shortfall in revenue, due to a locally depressed economy.

What happens to the intelligent life on the planets or land which is sold? Are they going to stay, or be removed to another place? Will they be compensated from the sale price?

These are all interesting questions that could be answered. So far I have only barely touched the subject of investment banking, based on what I learnt in Mergers & Acquisitions (valuing businesses for merger or acquisition). I welcome more input from those who have actually worked in investment banking. As I understand it, business valuation is an art as much as a science - it is subjective.

Regards,

Abhinav Lal
Moriarty
2012-08-29 23:42:36 UTC
Permalink
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the universe (or multiverse)?  If there is not any, I might write one just to keep myself busy during my retirement.  I have been semi-retired since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant, and now am fully retired.  I have to get another part-time consulting assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries?  How do you value entire planets or solar systems?  How do you value entire Galaxies or universes?  How would you value them now, and how will they be valued in the future?  These are the kind of questions for which I am looking to answer.  I studied business valuation using P/E rations and DCF during my MBA.  But there was no methodology for valuing political entities or large areas of land and space.
I certainly don't recommend it but Elron Hubbard's "Battlefield Earth"
has large sections devoted to banking and valuing planets. In fact,
if you took out the banking parts which IIRC takes up around the last
1/3 of the book, you'd have a fairly passable novel there. The movie
wisely left out those sections.

-Moriarty
Brenda Clough
2012-08-30 01:52:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Moriarty
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant, and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries? How do you value entire planets or solar systems? How do you value entire Galaxies or universes? How would you value them now, and how will they be valued in the future? These are the kind of questions for which I am looking to answer. I studied business valuation using P/E rations and DCF during my MBA. But there was no methodology for valuing political entities or large areas of land and space.
I certainly don't recommend it but Elron Hubbard's "Battlefield Earth"
has large sections devoted to banking and valuing planets. In fact,
if you took out the banking parts which IIRC takes up around the last
1/3 of the book, you'd have a fairly passable novel there. The movie
wisely left out those sections.
-Moriarty
Whoa, this explains SO much! BE is one of Mitt Romney's favorite novels.

Brenda
--
My latest novel SPEAK TO OUR DESIRES is available exclusively from Book
View Cafe.
http://www.bookviewcafe.com/index.php/Brenda-Clough/Novels/Speak-to-Our-Desires-Chapter-01
William December Starr
2012-08-31 22:40:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Moriarty
I certainly don't recommend it but Elron Hubbard's "Battlefield
Earth" has large sections devoted to banking and valuing
planets. In fact, if you took out the banking parts which IIRC
takes up around the last 1/3 of the book, you'd have a fairly
passable novel there. The movie wisely left out those sections.
And yet, apparently it didn't help enough. Perhaps they should
have left out the whole book.

-- wds
Rod Speed
2012-08-30 00:24:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just
to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired
since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant,
and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting
assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries?
Not even possible. Not that ever stops bean counters.
Post by Al Lal
How do you value entire planets or solar systems?
How do you value entire Galaxies or universes?
See above.
Post by Al Lal
How would you value them now, and
how will they be valued in the future?
Bean counters basically just pluck numbers out of their
arses when they 'value' major engineering projects like
say the Hoover Dam etc.
Post by Al Lal
These are the kind of questions for which I am looking to answer.
There is no useful answer.
Post by Al Lal
I studied business valuation using P/E rations and DCF
during my MBA. But there was no methodology for
valuing political entities or large areas of land and space.
Its not even possible.

How do you value WW2 or WW1 ? You can't.
Post by Al Lal
I read in a recent article that the total stock market capitalization
of the top (1000?) US companies is approximately USD 16 trillion.
I am not sure what total global market capitalization is, but USA's
value is approximately equal to its GDP. Assuming that total
business value is approximately equal to total GDP,
You can't assume that, because the GDP involves more than just business.

And doesn't include all sorts of things like Shakespeare etc.
Post by Al Lal
we can estimate the value of the world's stock
market capitalization as equal to world GDP,
Fraid not.
Post by Al Lal
which I believe is somewhere around USD 55 trillion.
But ignores subsistence agriculture for example.
Post by Al Lal
Can country and world market capitalization be used
as an estimate for value of the country or planet?
Not if you want the real value.
Post by Al Lal
In the future could a price to GDP ratio be used to estimate
value of a country or planet or other collection of matter?
Not if you want the real value.
Post by Al Lal
Now I work in IT, so if there are any economists or financial
experts out there, you can contribute to this discussion, and
I will not mind at all if you correct me where I am wrong.
I have some other ideas for valuing countries, planets, and other large objects.
You could calculate the earning potential for every living thing that
lives
Nope, most obviously with the insects.
Post by Al Lal
and will ever be born,
Not even possible to even just count those.
Post by Al Lal
and discount it at an appropriate rate. I believe this method could give
wildly
different values depending on your assumptions like population growth
rates
and income growth rates, and whatever value you get would be very high.
A very large number, anyway.
Post by Al Lal
You could calculate the value of all land and natural resources.
Nope. Depends entirely on what use it can be put to.
Post by Al Lal
Natural resources exist elsewhere in the solar system besides Earth.
Planets, moons, asteroids - they are all rich in natural resources.
But some are just a tad hard to exploit like with suns etc.
Post by Al Lal
A planet also would be valuable if it is capable
of sustaining economically active life.
Not necessarily, particularly if we get
our act into gear with the one we have.
Post by Al Lal
This should also be taken into account, along with
the duration for which the planet can sustain life.
Also completely impossible to calculate.
Post by Al Lal
However in the future new technologies may arise that
may increase the length of time the planet can sustain life.
Even without that its impossible.
Post by Al Lal
What do you think?
I gave up on doing that, it just makes my head hurt.
Post by Al Lal
Do you have any other factors that need to be considered
in valuing a country, planet, or solar system?
Yep, obviously who is doing the buying.
Post by Al Lal
I had done some rough calculations for the
value of the planet based on global income.
That's a useless measure when much of
the value doesn't even involve any income.
Post by Al Lal
Like I said, I got a big range of values based on my
assumptions. You never know what disaster or miracle
is going to happen in the future. Perhaps we should
only forecast income for everyone who is alive today
If you do that the number is useless.

That would be as silly as trying to estimate the value of north america
before the white man showed up, or before the red indians did etc.
Post by Al Lal
and discount it - then I get a value of approximately USD 1,500 trillion.
I hope these technical details did not bore you. In the future business
and
investment banking will operate on a much larger scale and be more
interesting.
We'll see...
Post by Al Lal
Sovereign solar systems could sell of asteroids or moons
to foreign organizations to raise money due to a shortfall
in revenue, due to a locally depressed economy.
Pigs might fly, too.
Post by Al Lal
What happens to the intelligent life
on the planets or land which is sold?
Louisiana and Alaska managed that somehow.

Nothing special, basically.
Post by Al Lal
Are they going to stay, or be removed to another place?
Or both.
Post by Al Lal
Will they be compensated from the sale price?
Not usually.
Post by Al Lal
These are all interesting questions
Maybe.
Post by Al Lal
that could be answered.
Nope.
Post by Al Lal
So far I have only barely touched the subject of investment banking,
Thank god for that.
Post by Al Lal
based on what I learnt in Mergers & Acquisitions
(valuing businesses for merger or acquisition).
I welcome more input from those who have
actually worked in investment banking.
I think its unlikely you will be swamped...
Post by Al Lal
As I understand it, business valuation is an art as much as a science
And a wank too.
Post by Al Lal
- it is subjective.
So is everything.
Al Lal
2012-08-30 18:45:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just
to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired
since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant,
and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting
assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries?
Not even possible. Not that ever stops bean counters.
Just because you or other people don't know how doesn't mean its impossible.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
How do you value entire planets or solar systems?
How do you value entire Galaxies or universes?
See above.
In the future as intelligent life spreads throughout the universe, there will be buying and selling of planets, moons, and asteroids and they will sell at a price.

There will be financial consultants or investment bankers who will provide advisory services in pricing, buying, and selling, planets and other space objects.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
How would you value them now, and
how will they be valued in the future?
Bean counters basically just pluck numbers out of their
arses when they 'value' major engineering projects like
say the Hoover Dam etc.
Financial analysts use spreadsheet models to forecast future cash flow from a business and discount it to estimate present value. However there can be a big range of values that could be output, and they use judgement and pressure from bosses and other people to decide on the final business value.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
These are the kind of questions for which I am looking to answer.
There is no useful answer.
Just because you do not have the imagination to come up with an answer, does not mean we cannot come up with an approximate value or range of values.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
I studied business valuation using P/E rations and DCF
during my MBA. But there was no methodology for
valuing political entities or large areas of land and space.
Its not even possible.
No.
Post by Rod Speed
How do you value WW2 or WW1 ? You can't.
The economic cost of World Wars can be estimated.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
I read in a recent article that the total stock market capitalization
of the top (1000?) US companies is approximately USD 16 trillion.
I am not sure what total global market capitalization is, but USA's
value is approximately equal to its GDP. Assuming that total
business value is approximately equal to total GDP,
You can't assume that, because the GDP involves more than just business.
I don't think you understand why I am making that simplifying assumption.
Post by Rod Speed
And doesn't include all sorts of things like Shakespeare etc.
Post by Al Lal
we can estimate the value of the world's stock
market capitalization as equal to world GDP,
Fraid not.
No.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
which I believe is somewhere around USD 55 trillion.
But ignores subsistence agriculture for example.
Post by Al Lal
Can country and world market capitalization be used
as an estimate for value of the country or planet?
Not if you want the real value.
You also have to include the value of businesses not in the stock market.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
In the future could a price to GDP ratio be used to estimate
value of a country or planet or other collection of matter?
Not if you want the real value.
If similar planets are sold at similar price to GDP ratios, than this measure can be used to estimate market value of a planet.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Now I work in IT, so if there are any economists or financial
experts out there, you can contribute to this discussion, and
I will not mind at all if you correct me where I am wrong.
I have some other ideas for valuing countries, planets, and other large
objects.
You could calculate the earning potential for every living thing that
lives
Nope, most obviously with the insects.
Insects do not earn.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
and will ever be born,
Not even possible to even just count those.
You can estimate. The future is unpredictable, but you can always estimate future populations and income distributions as many organizations do.

You can also add present net worth to the income.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
and discount it at an appropriate rate. I believe this method could give
wildly
different values depending on your assumptions like population growth
rates
and income growth rates, and whatever value you get would be very high.
A very large number, anyway.
Post by Al Lal
You could calculate the value of all land and natural resources.
Nope. Depends entirely on what use it can be put to.
You can value it knowing the supply and demand.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Natural resources exist elsewhere in the solar system besides Earth.
Planets, moons, asteroids - they are all rich in natural resources.
But some are just a tad hard to exploit like with suns etc.
Post by Al Lal
A planet also would be valuable if it is capable
of sustaining economically active life.
Not necessarily, particularly if we get
our act into gear with the one we have.
We will eventually colonize the galaxy, and then for us earth like planets will be valuable.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
This should also be taken into account, along with
the duration for which the planet can sustain life.
Also completely impossible to calculate.
Impossible for you to calculate or guesstimate.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
However in the future new technologies may arise that
may increase the length of time the planet can sustain life.
Even without that its impossible.
Post by Al Lal
What do you think?
I gave up on doing that, it just makes my head hurt.
It is obvious you brain is unable to cope with my ideas.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Do you have any other factors that need to be considered
in valuing a country, planet, or solar system?
Yep, obviously who is doing the buying.
Yes. Also, location - is it at a densely populated vibrant location or in a remote place etc.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
I had done some rough calculations for the
value of the planet based on global income.
That's a useless measure when much of
the value doesn't even involve any income.
The value of a human life is sometimes estimated as potential future earnings.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Like I said, I got a big range of values based on my
assumptions. You never know what disaster or miracle
is going to happen in the future. Perhaps we should
only forecast income for everyone who is alive today
If you do that the number is useless.
That would be as silly as trying to estimate the value of north america
before the white man showed up, or before the red indians did etc.
No.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
and discount it - then I get a value of approximately USD 1,500 trillion.
I hope these technical details did not bore you. In the future business
and
investment banking will operate on a much larger scale and be more
interesting.
We'll see...
Post by Al Lal
Sovereign solar systems could sell of asteroids or moons
to foreign organizations to raise money due to a shortfall
in revenue, due to a locally depressed economy.
Pigs might fly, too.
You are obviously lacking in imagination.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
What happens to the intelligent life
on the planets or land which is sold?
Louisiana and Alaska managed that somehow.
They were sold at a price which was their value - therefore states do or did have a market value, then countries can also be valued.
Post by Rod Speed
Nothing special, basically.
Post by Al Lal
Are they going to stay, or be removed to another place?
Or both.
Post by Al Lal
Will they be compensated from the sale price?
Not usually.
Post by Al Lal
These are all interesting questions
Maybe.
Post by Al Lal
that could be answered.
Nope.
You are not capable of answering them.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
So far I have only barely touched the subject of investment banking,
Thank god for that.
There is no god.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
based on what I learnt in Mergers & Acquisitions
(valuing businesses for merger or acquisition).
I welcome more input from those who have
actually worked in investment banking.
I think its unlikely you will be swamped...
Yes. You are right. Investment bankers are rich and busy professionals who worker typically 80 plus hours a week (at least in USA), and have no time for internet forums.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
As I understand it, business valuation is an art as much as a science
And a wank too.
Post by Al Lal
- it is subjective.
So is everything.
Regards,

Al Lal

"Imagination is more important than knowledge"
- Albert Einstein
Jaimie Vandenbergh
2012-08-30 19:02:49 UTC
Permalink
On Thu, 30 Aug 2012 11:45:41 -0700 (PDT), Al Lal
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just
to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired
since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant,
and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting
assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries?
Not even possible. Not that ever stops bean counters.
Just because you or other people don't know how doesn't mean its impossible.
Even though you didn't include the intro with his name, it was obvious
right from here that it was Rod Speed talking twaddle again.

Cheers - Jaimie
--
If you can't beat your computer at chess, try kickboxing
David DeLaney
2012-08-31 04:25:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jaimie Vandenbergh
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just
to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired
since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant,
and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting
assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries?
Not even possible. Not that ever stops bean counters.
Just because you or other people don't know how doesn't mean its impossible.
Even though you didn't include the intro with his name, it was obvious
right from here that it was Rod Speed talking twaddle again.
I got that distinct impression as well.

You might also want to check out the Unincorporated trilogy by Kollin & Kollin;
while not about investment banking specifically, it _is_ based on a rather
different kind of economy than we currently rejoice in.

Dave
--
\/David DeLaney posting from ***@vic.com "It's not the pot that grows the flower
It's not the clock that slows the hour The definition's plain for anyone to see
Love is all it takes to make a family" - R&P. VISUALIZE HAPPYNET VRbeable<BLINK>
http://www.vic.com/~dbd/ - net.legends FAQ & Magic / I WUV you in all CAPS! --K.
Michael Stemper
2012-09-04 13:19:19 UTC
Permalink
Post by David DeLaney
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)?
You might also want to check out the Unincorporated trilogy by Kollin & Kollin;
There are now four books in the series:
<http://www.isfdb.org/cgi-bin/ea.cgi?120663>

(I never heard of it before Saturday, but saw them on two panels, during
which they did mildly flog the fourth book.)
--
Michael F. Stemper
#include <Standard_Disclaimer>
Life's too important to take seriously.
Rod Speed
2012-08-30 20:09:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one just
to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been semi-retired
since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant,
and now am fully retired. I have to get another part-time consulting
assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries?
Not even possible. Not that ever stops bean counters.
Just because you or other people don't
know how doesn't mean its impossible.
But it is impossible anyway.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
How do you value entire planets or solar systems?
How do you value entire Galaxies or universes?
See above.
In the future as intelligent life spreads throughout the universe,
It remains to be seen if that ever happens
given the immense distances and time involved.
Post by Al Lal
there will be buying and selling of planets,
moons, and asteroids and they will sell at a price.
There wasn't in fact very much of that at all in the current
planet and they didn't bother much with valuations anyway,
just resorted to the usual approach of seeing what a buyer was
prepared to pay on the odd few occasions when that happened.
Post by Al Lal
There will be financial consultants or investment bankers
who will provide advisory services in pricing, buying, and
selling, planets and other space objects.
Have fun explaining why there wasn't
when that happened back here on earth.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
How would you value them now, and
how will they be valued in the future?
Bean counters basically just pluck numbers out of their
arses when they 'value' major engineering projects like
say the Hoover Dam etc.
Financial analysts use spreadsheet models to forecast future cash
flow from a business and discount it to estimate present value.
That's just automating the plucking of numbers from their arses.

Those numbers they pluck from their arses go into their models.
Post by Al Lal
However there can be a big range of values that could be
output, and they use judgement and pressure from bosses
and other people to decide on the final business value.
Which is just another way of saying that the numbers come from their arses.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
These are the kind of questions for which I am looking to answer.
There is no useful answer.
Just because you do not have the imagination to
come up with an answer, does not mean we cannot
come up with an approximate value or range of values.
You have demonstrated that it isnt even possible to produce useful numbers.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
I studied business valuation using P/E rations and DCF
during my MBA. But there was no methodology for
valuing political entities or large areas of land and space.
Its not even possible.
No.
Post by Rod Speed
How do you value WW2 or WW1 ? You can't.
The economic cost of World Wars can be estimated.
The most you can ever do is produce some meaningless numbers.

Ditto with say the value of a single human life.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
I read in a recent article that the total stock market capitalization
of the top (1000?) US companies is approximately USD 16 trillion.
I am not sure what total global market capitalization is, but
USA's value is approximately equal to its GDP. Assuming
that total business value is approximately equal to total GDP,
You can't assume that, because the GDP involves more than just business.
I don't think you understand why I am making that simplifying assumption.
It isnt a simplifying assumption, it's a completely silly assumption to
make.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
And doesn't include all sorts of things like Shakespeare etc.
Post by Al Lal
we can estimate the value of the world's stock
market capitalization as equal to world GDP,
Fraid not.
No.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
which I believe is somewhere around USD 55 trillion.
But ignores subsistence agriculture for example.
Post by Al Lal
Can country and world market capitalization be used
as an estimate for value of the country or planet?
Not if you want the real value.
You also have to include the value of
businesses not in the stock market.
And that is in fact much more than what is in the stock market.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
In the future could a price to GDP ratio be used to estimate
value of a country or planet or other collection of matter?
Not if you want the real value.
If similar planets are sold at similar price to GDP ratios,
They arent. We don't even have similar unsold planets.
Post by Al Lal
than this measure can be used to estimate market value of a planet.
And when there are no sold planets, it can't.

And even when the article that you are attempting to value
does get bought and sold, the value can vary wildly depending
on what is fashionable anyway, most obviously with antiques
the the used clothes of film stars etc etc etc.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Now I work in IT, so if there are any economists or financial
experts out there, you can contribute to this discussion, and
I will not mind at all if you correct me where I am wrong.
I have some other ideas for valuing countries, planets, and other large objects.
You could calculate the earning potential for every living thing that
lives
Nope, most obviously with the insects.
Insects do not earn.
Neither do most living things.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
and will ever be born,
Not even possible to even just count those.
You can estimate.
Nope.
Post by Al Lal
The future is unpredictable, but you can
always estimate future populations
Nope. Not one modern first world country is even self replacing
on population now if you take out immigration. Its completely
impossible to estimate where we will end up population wise
now that virtually everywhere is seeing a drop in growth rates
now, except for those places where the growth rate is already way
below the replacement level and we are seeing a bit of noise in
the numbers now.
Post by Al Lal
and income distributions as many organizations do.
And when fools like Malthus tried that, he ended
with egg all over his face, very spectacularly indeed.
Post by Al Lal
You can also add present net worth to the income.
And then the clowns can be allowed to completely
implode much of the world's financial system, AGAIN,
and those numbers are then completely useless.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
and discount it at an appropriate rate. I believe this method could
give wildly
different values depending on your assumptions like population growth
rates
and income growth rates, and whatever value you get would be very high.
A very large number, anyway.
Post by Al Lal
You could calculate the value of all land and natural resources.
Nope. Depends entirely on what use it can be put to.
You can value it knowing the supply and demand.
You never know what the supply and demand will be.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Natural resources exist elsewhere in the solar system besides Earth.
Planets, moons, asteroids - they are all rich in natural resources.
But some are just a tad hard to exploit like with suns etc.
Post by Al Lal
A planet also would be valuable if it is capable
of sustaining economically active life.
Not necessarily, particularly if we get
our act into gear with the one we have.
We will eventually colonize the galaxy,
You don't know that.
Post by Al Lal
and then for us earth like planets will be valuable.
You don't even know if there are any of those.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
This should also be taken into account, along with
the duration for which the planet can sustain life.
Also completely impossible to calculate.
Impossible for you to calculate or guesstimate.
Impossible for anyone to calculate. The most anyone
can ever do is pluck some numbers from their arse.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
However in the future new technologies may arise that
may increase the length of time the planet can sustain life.
Even without that its impossible.
Post by Al Lal
What do you think?
I gave up on doing that, it just makes my head hurt.
It is obvious you brain is unable to cope with my ideas.
You don't have even a single idea.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Do you have any other factors that need to be considered
in valuing a country, planet, or solar system?
Yep, obviously who is doing the buying.
Yes. Also, location - is it at a densely populated
vibrant location or in a remote place etc.
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
I had done some rough calculations for the
value of the planet based on global income.
That's a useless measure when much of
the value doesn't even involve any income.
The value of a human life is sometimes
estimated as potential future earnings.
And that is another complete wank.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
Like I said, I got a big range of values based on my
assumptions. You never know what disaster or miracle
is going to happen in the future. Perhaps we should
only forecast income for everyone who is alive today
If you do that the number is useless.
That would be as silly as trying to estimate the value of north america
before the white man showed up, or before the red indians did etc.
No.
Yep.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
and discount it - then I get a value of approximately USD 1,500 trillion.
I hope these technical details did not bore you. In the future business
and
investment banking will operate on a much larger scale and be more
interesting.
We'll see...
Post by Al Lal
Sovereign solar systems could sell of asteroids or moons
to foreign organizations to raise money due to a shortfall
in revenue, due to a locally depressed economy.
Pigs might fly, too.
You are obviously lacking in imagination.
Yours is a fetid swamp.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
What happens to the intelligent life
on the planets or land which is sold?
Louisiana and Alaska managed that somehow.
They were sold at a price which was their value
Nope, they were sold at a price that the buyer
chose to pay, a different matter entirely.
Post by Al Lal
- therefore states do or did have a market value,
Nope. Because fuck all of that happened.
Post by Al Lal
then countries can also be valued.
OK, put a value on north america before any white men showed up.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Nothing special, basically.
Post by Al Lal
Are they going to stay, or be removed to another place?
Or both.
Post by Al Lal
Will they be compensated from the sale price?
Not usually.
Post by Al Lal
These are all interesting questions
Maybe.
Post by Al Lal
that could be answered.
Nope.
You are not capable of answering them.
No one else is either.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
So far I have only barely touched the subject of investment banking,
Thank god for that.
There is no god.
You did manage to get that bit right, likely by accident.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
based on what I learnt in Mergers & Acquisitions
(valuing businesses for merger or acquisition).
I welcome more input from those who have
actually worked in investment banking.
I think its unlikely you will be swamped...
Yes. You are right.
As always.
Post by Al Lal
Investment bankers are rich and busy professionals who
worker typically 80 plus hours a week (at least in USA),
Oh bullshit.
Post by Al Lal
and have no time for internet forums.
This isnt an internet forum.
Post by Al Lal
Post by Rod Speed
Post by Al Lal
As I understand it, business valuation is an art as much as a science
And a wank too.
Post by Al Lal
- it is subjective.
So is everything.
lal_truckee
2012-08-30 03:37:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers
Try Gladiator at Law - Kornbluth/Pohl
Stephen Allcroft
2012-08-30 10:16:47 UTC
Permalink
< Snip>

Learning the World Ken MacLeod -futures market aboard a generation
ship intent on colonising.
Post by Al Lal
Abhinav Lal
David Goldfarb
2012-08-30 11:29:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Stephen Allcroft
< Snip>
Learning the World Ken MacLeod -futures market aboard a generation
ship intent on colonising.
Charlie Stross's _Neptune's Brood_, which should be out sometime
next year, is *all about* investment banking. Sadly, I found the
underpinnings of his economy to be unconvincing.

_Norstrilia_, by Cordwainer Smith, involves commodities trading,
but it's only used to set up the plot rather than being the focus
of the book.

_The Dragon's Path_ and _The King's Blood_, by Daniel Abraham,
involve investment banking, but they're fantasy in a medievalesque
world rather than SF. Still, it's a somewhat unusual topic for
fantasy as well.
--
David Goldfarb | "No-one in the world ever gets what they want
***@gmail.com | And that is beautiful.
***@ocf.berkeley.edu | Everybody dies frustrated and sad
| And that is beautiful." -- TMBG
Jaimie Vandenbergh
2012-08-30 12:02:16 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 29 Aug 2012 16:23:41 -0700 (PDT), Al Lal
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the universe (or multiverse)?
There's a little in passing during the _Merchant Princes_ series by
Stross.
Post by Al Lal
If there is not any, I might write one just to keep myself busy during my retirement.
Please do!

Cheers - Jaimie
--
To predict the behavior of ordinary people in advance, you only have to
assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with
the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence. -- Nietzsche
unknown
2012-08-31 13:19:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al Lal
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the
universe (or multiverse)?
There's a little in passing during the _Merchant Princes_ series by
Stross.
Also Stross in Accelerando uses setting up and manipulation of companies
which is one part what Invertment Banking does.
--
Mark
Michael Stemper
2012-09-04 16:54:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by unknown
Post by Al Lal
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the
universe (or multiverse)?
There's a little in passing during the _Merchant Princes_ series by
Stross.
Also Stross in Accelerando uses setting up and manipulation of companies
In perl, if I recall correctly.
--
Michael F. Stemper
#include <Standard_Disclaimer>
Life's too important to take seriously.
a***@yahoo.com
2012-08-30 20:21:58 UTC
Permalink
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the universe (or multiverse)?  If there is not any, I might write one just to keep myself busy during my retirement.  I have been semi-retired since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence consultant, and now am fully retired.  I have to get another part-time consulting assignment or write on a part-time basis - both activities which I enjoy.
The Man Who Sold The Moon by Heinlein?
Robert Carnegie
2012-08-30 22:36:59 UTC
Permalink
I was going to mention an auction of planets - or specifically the
right to investigate and exploit them commercially - in
Andre Norton's _The Sargasso of Space_.

And then, I guess, _How Much for Just the Planet_.
Don Kuenz
2012-08-31 03:08:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al Lal
How do you value entire Galaxies or universes?
There's about a bazillion quatloos in known space, so do the math.
Post by Al Lal
Do you have any other factors that need to be considered in valuing a country, planet, or solar system?
Your velocity of money needs to include a term for the peristaltic
movements of Adrajan space worms.

--
Don Kuenz
Mike Dworetsky
2012-08-31 10:18:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout
the universe (or multiverse)? If there is not any, I might write one
just to keep myself busy during my retirement. I have been
semi-retired since 2008, working part-time as a Business Intelligence
consultant, and now am fully retired. I have to get another
part-time consulting assignment or write on a part-time basis - both
activities which I enjoy.
How do you value entire continents or countries? How do you value
entire planets or solar systems? How do you value entire Galaxies or
universes? How would you value them now, and how will they be valued
in the future? These are the kind of questions for which I am
looking to answer. I studied business valuation using P/E rations
and DCF during my MBA. But there was no methodology for valuing
political entities or large areas of land and space.
I read in a recent article that the total stock market capitalization
of the top (1000?) US companies is approximately USD 16 trillion. I
am not sure what total global market capitalization is, but USA's
value is approximately equal to its GDP. Assuming that total
business value is approximately equal to total GDP, we can estimate
the value of the world's stock market capitalization as equal to
world GDP, which I believe is somewhere around USD 55 trillion.
Can country and world market capitalization be used as an estimate
for value of the country or planet? In the future could a price to
GDP ratio be used to estimate value of a country or planet or other
collection of matter?
Now I work in IT, so if there are any economists or financial experts
out there, you can contribute to this discussion, and I will not mind
at all if you correct me where I am wrong.
I have some other ideas for valuing countries, planets, and other large objects.
You could calculate the earning potential for every living thing that
lives and will ever be born, and discount it at an appropriate rate.
I believe this method could give wildly different values depending on
your assumptions like population growth rates and income growth
rates, and whatever value you get would be very high.
You could calculate the value of all land and natural resources.
Natural resources exist elsewhere in the solar system besides Earth.
Planets, moons, asteroids - they are all rich in natural resources.
A planet also would be valuable if it is capable of sustaining
economically active life. This should also be taken into account,
along with the duration for which the planet can sustain life.
However in the future new technologies may arise that may increase
the length of time the planet can sustain life.
What do you think? Do you have any other factors that need to be
considered in valuing a country, planet, or solar system?
I had done some rough calculations for the value of the planet based
on global income. Like I said, I got a big range of values based on
my assumptions. You never know what disaster or miracle is going to
happen in the future. Perhaps we should only forecast income for
everyone who is alive today and discount it - then I get a value of
approximately USD 1,500 trillion.
I hope these technical details did not bore you. In the future
business and investment banking will operate on a much larger scale
and be more interesting.
Sovereign solar systems could sell of asteroids or moons to foreign
organizations to raise money due to a shortfall in revenue, due to a
locally depressed economy.
What happens to the intelligent life on the planets or land which is
sold? Are they going to stay, or be removed to another place? Will
they be compensated from the sale price?
These are all interesting questions that could be answered. So far I
have only barely touched the subject of investment banking, based on
what I learnt in Mergers & Acquisitions (valuing businesses for
merger or acquisition). I welcome more input from those who have
actually worked in investment banking. As I understand it, business
valuation is an art as much as a science - it is subjective.
Regards,
Abhinav Lal
Well, there is a famous 1978 paper on The Theory of Interstellar Trade, by
Paul Krugman

http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/interstellar.pdf

40 years later Krugman won the Nobel Prize for Economics (true) based
largely on this important
work*.






*false, but so what?
--
Mike Dworetsky

(Remove pants sp*mbl*ck to reply)
JRStern
2012-08-31 16:58:38 UTC
Permalink
On Wed, 29 Aug 2012 16:23:41 -0700 (PDT), Al Lal
Post by Al Lal
Is there any SF work about investment bankers operating throughout the universe (or multiverse)?
Norstrillia, aka The Planet Buyer?

J.
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