Discussion:
OT: (This post is "Off Topic", children) Why China's numbers are most likely nonsense.
(too old to reply)
Alan Baker
2020-03-22 17:31:27 UTC
Permalink
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html>

And a fantastic set of infographics.

Does anyone really believe that China is only growing at 40-50 cases a day?

Oh, and the US now has nearly 36,000 cases—ranking it 3rd overall—with
nearly 400 deaths.
Quadibloc
2020-03-23 01:22:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alan Baker
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html>
And a fantastic set of infographics.
Does anyone really believe that China is only growing at 40-50 cases a day?
Oh, and the US now has nearly 36,000 cases—ranking it 3rd overall—with
nearly 400 deaths.
And, of course, it will be hard to find out the truth.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/china-has-been-censoring-coronavirus-information-for-months

John Savard
Paul S Person
2020-03-23 17:25:13 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alan Baker
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html>
And a fantastic set of infographics.
Does anyone really believe that China is only growing at 40-50 cases a day?
Oh, and the US now has nearly 36,000 cases—ranking it 3rd overall—with
nearly 400 deaths.
There appears to have been a change: I am reading of states urging
that actual /testing/ be restricted to health workers and cases where
a diagnosis would make a difference in treatment.

"If you are sick, just take it for granted it's the virus" is the
advice. "No need for a test".

The reason given: containment has failed.

So, that being the case, I would think the doubling rate of
hospitalizations/deaths would be the firmist indicator of whether or
not the spread has slowed. And how much trouble we are likely to be
in. And how soon we will be in it.

China -- Italy/Europe -- USA (and the rest of the Americas): looks
like a world tour to me.
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."
Alan Baker
2020-03-23 18:19:31 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul S Person
Post by Alan Baker
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html>
And a fantastic set of infographics.
Does anyone really believe that China is only growing at 40-50 cases a day?
Oh, and the US now has nearly 36,000 cases—ranking it 3rd overall—with
nearly 400 deaths.
There appears to have been a change: I am reading of states urging
that actual /testing/ be restricted to health workers and cases where
a diagnosis would make a difference in treatment.
"If you are sick, just take it for granted it's the virus" is the
advice. "No need for a test".
The reason given: containment has failed.
So, that being the case, I would think the doubling rate of
hospitalizations/deaths would be the firmist indicator of whether or
not the spread has slowed. And how much trouble we are likely to be
in. And how soon we will be in it.
Deaths in the US continue to grow; doubling about ever 3 days.
Robert Carnegie
2020-03-23 21:02:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul S Person
Post by Alan Baker
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html>
And a fantastic set of infographics.
Does anyone really believe that China is only growing at 40-50 cases a day?
Oh, and the US now has nearly 36,000 cases羊anking it 3rd overall謡ith
nearly 400 deaths.
There appears to have been a change: I am reading of states urging
that actual /testing/ be restricted to health workers and cases where
a diagnosis would make a difference in treatment.
"If you are sick, just take it for granted it's the virus" is the
advice. "No need for a test".
The reason given: containment has failed.
So, that being the case, I would think the doubling rate of
hospitalizations/deaths would be the firmist indicator of whether or
not the spread has slowed. And how much trouble we are likely to be
in. And how soon we will be in it.
Certifying hospitalisation or death would also require
a test.

And testing cases where it most matters /first/
makes sense.

What does it cost? In containment, it's an important
part of identifying people to isolate. By now in most
countries, the new plan is just to isolate everybody.

Rich people are spending money on getting tested.
I don't mind that. Money is for getting things.

Today's paper was chiding someone in Britain who was
selling home tests for I think about $500, and it
said he gets them wholesale for about $150, but
I assume that it usually costs much less than that -
at least in the UK - when a doctor wants to test a
patient.

As a theoretically possible patient, I have a
thermometer. I can test myself with that as often
as I like. But the new idea is that /that/ may be,
so to speak, too late.
Paul S Person
2020-03-24 16:56:27 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 14:02:39 -0700 (PDT), Robert Carnegie
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by Paul S Person
Post by Alan Baker
<https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html>
And a fantastic set of infographics.
Does anyone really believe that China is only growing at 40-50 cases a day?
Oh, and the US now has nearly 36,000 cases?anking it 3rd overall?ith
nearly 400 deaths.
There appears to have been a change: I am reading of states urging
that actual /testing/ be restricted to health workers and cases where
a diagnosis would make a difference in treatment.
"If you are sick, just take it for granted it's the virus" is the
advice. "No need for a test".
The reason given: containment has failed.
So, that being the case, I would think the doubling rate of
hospitalizations/deaths would be the firmist indicator of whether or
not the spread has slowed. And how much trouble we are likely to be
in. And how soon we will be in it.
Certifying hospitalisation or death would also require
a test.
And testing cases where it most matters /first/
makes sense.
What does it cost? In containment, it's an important
part of identifying people to isolate. By now in most
countries, the new plan is just to isolate everybody.
Rich people are spending money on getting tested.
I don't mind that. Money is for getting things.
Today's paper was chiding someone in Britain who was
selling home tests for I think about $500, and it
said he gets them wholesale for about $150, but
I assume that it usually costs much less than that -
at least in the UK - when a doctor wants to test a
patient.
Sounds like Standard Medical Practice ... in the USA.

There are signs the gummint is getting roused up to go after people
who do stuff like that over here, BTW.
Post by Robert Carnegie
As a theoretically possible patient, I have a
thermometer. I can test myself with that as often
as I like. But the new idea is that /that/ may be,
so to speak, too late.
Mine was battery powered, and a new battery was conspicuously sold out
at the drug store. But what does it matter? If I get it, and don't
just shrug it off, I'll know it.

So, while complying with our Guv's latest (and any future) decrees, I
agreed with Alfred:

What, me worry?
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."
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