"NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"

[Lynn McGuire]

"NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde

"Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope
to study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than
eight years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the
asteroid was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our
planet have increased slightly since then, according to the European
Space Agency."

“The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually
reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with
monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”

Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?

Lynn

[Dimensional Traveler]

On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>
> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope
> to study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than
> eight years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the
> asteroid was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our
> planet have increased slightly since then, according to the European
> Space Agency."
>
> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually
> reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
> asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with
> monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
> probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>
> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>
I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve
their accuracy.

--
I've done good in this world. Now I'm tired and just want to be a cranky
dirty old man.

[Charles Packer]

On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 17:45:01 -0800, Dimensional Traveler wrote:

> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>
>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>
>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>> Telescope to study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking
>> Earth less than eight years from now. Characterized as a potential
>> "city-killer," the asteroid was first detected in December and its odds
>> of impacting our planet have increased slightly since then, according
>> to the European Space Agency."
>>
>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually
>> reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>> asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with
>> monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward
>> the probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>
>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>
> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve
> their accuracy.

Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.

[s|b]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:

> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.

You forgot about the American AI.

--
s|b

[Paul S Person]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:

>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>
>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>
>You forgot about the American AI.

That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.

Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]

And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
that may be.

[1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
simply telling them they are fired.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>
>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>
>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>
>>You forgot about the American AI.
>
>That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>
>Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>
>And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>that may be.
>
>[1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>simply telling them they are fired.

Which is why they should insert earplugs before trying to arrest
the President.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[Lynn McGuire]

On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>
>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>
>> You forgot about the American AI.
>
> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>
> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>
> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
> that may be.
>
> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
> simply telling them they are fired.

Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail. At one point, Lincoln
had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
were actively fighting against the Civil War.

Lynn

[Lynn McGuire]

On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>
>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>
>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>
>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>
>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>
>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>> that may be.
>>
>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>> simply telling them they are fired.
>
> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>
> Lynn

Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.

Lynn

[Paul S Person]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
<***@gmail.com> wrote:

>On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>
>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>
>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>
>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>
>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>> that may be.
>>>
>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>
>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>
>> Lynn
>
>Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.

That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.

Whatever it may be.

Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[D]

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:

> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>
>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>
>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>
>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>
>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>> that may be.
>>>>
>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>
>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>
>>> Lynn
>>
>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>
> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>
> Whatever it may be.
>
> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!

Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
a spiritual being!

Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
against crazy republicans? ;)

[Paul S Person]

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:

>
>
>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>
>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>
>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>
>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>
>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>
>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>
>>>> Lynn
>>>
>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>
>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>
>> Whatever it may be.
>>
>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>
>Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>a spiritual being!
>
>Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>against crazy republicans? ;)

More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.

Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[D]

On Fri, 14 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:

> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>
>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>
>>>>> Lynn
>>>>
>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>
>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>
>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>
>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>
>> Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>> a spiritual being!
>>
>> Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>> against crazy republicans? ;)
>
> More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>
> Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.

But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)

On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(

It's a shame that not more people have guns!

[Paul S Person]

On Fri, 14 Feb 2025 22:55:18 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:

>
>
>On Fri, 14 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>
>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Lynn
>>>>>
>>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>>
>>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>>
>>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>>
>>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>>
>>> Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>>> a spiritual being!
>>>
>>> Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>>> against crazy republicans? ;)
>>
>> More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>>
>> Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.
>
>But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
>it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)

The Army taught me.

But no amount of training can make up for basic klutziness.

>On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(

I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
between shooters and victims.
2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
to be /much/ higher.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[D]

On Sat, 15 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:

>> But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
>> it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)
>
> The Army taught me.

That's fascinating! Did you ever kill anyone? How come you choose the army as
your employer?

>> On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>> recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>> guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>
> I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
> 1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
> only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
> between shooters and victims.

Easy! If they would shoot the shooter, the police would not even have to get to
the place, so the problem will not arise.

Note that the police arrived after 5 minutes. Then they camped outside waiting
for thing to calm down for about 45 minutes, and then they went in and found the
killer who by that time had killed 10 and committed suicide.

Much better if a teacher had a gun and could just shoot the killer on sight.
Also, add to that the deterrence factor for the killer knowing that he goes into
a school where the employees are all carrying guns. Then he would not do it.

> 2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
> to be /much/ higher.

Not correct statements. Obviously people are trained before being allowed to use
a gun. It is easy... you just point and click. I've done it myself on several
occasions (using targets, not humans!). =)

[Paul S Person]

On Sat, 15 Feb 2025 22:32:11 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:

>
>
>On Sat, 15 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>
>>> But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
>>> it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)
>>
>> The Army taught me.
>
>That's fascinating! Did you ever kill anyone? How come you choose the army as
>your employer?

It is part of Basic Training. And it was in 1969. There was this Draft
going on at the time.

I managed to /not/ get sent into a combat zone. And weapon useage was
strictly controlled in non-combat zones.

>>> On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>>> recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>>> guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>>
>> I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>> 1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>> only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>> between shooters and victims.
>
>Easy! If they would shoot the shooter, the police would not even have to get to
>the place, so the problem will not arise.

You are missing the point: if you 30 3rd-graders all firing at random,
they will likely /all/ be dead very quickly. That the shooter dies as
well is no consolation, as it deprives the public of the satisfaction
of a trial.

>Note that the police arrived after 5 minutes. Then they camped outside waiting
>for thing to calm down for about 45 minutes, and then they went in and found the
>killer who by that time had killed 10 and committed suicide.

Are you sure you aren't talking about a recent event in Texas?

Even for Texas, that behavior was ... substandard.

>Much better if a teacher had a gun and could just shoot the killer on sight.

And then be shot by the police when they arrive, unless they follow
police instruction to "drop the weapon!".

Because, as far the responding officers can tell, the teacher /is/ the
shooter because the teacher is holding a gun.

This sort of thing has happened in living memory (several years ago):
a homeowner shot an intruder, called the police, wandered outside with
the gun in his hand, and ignored them. His wife was a widow shortly
thereafter.

>Also, add to that the deterrence factor for the killer knowing that he goes into
>a school where the employees are all carrying guns. Then he would not do it.

The only form of deterrence that works in capital punishment: a hanged
perp is a perp that is deterred from ever re-offending.

>> 2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
>> to be /much/ higher.
>
>Not correct statements. Obviously people are trained before being allowed to use
>a gun. It is easy... you just point and click. I've done it myself on several
>occasions (using targets, not humans!). =)

Depends on the State. And do you /really/ think 3rd-graders are going
to remember their training when they are excited?
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Sat, 15 Feb 2025 22:32:11 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>On Sat, 15 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>>> But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
>>>> it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)
>>>
>>> The Army taught me.
>>
>>That's fascinating! Did you ever kill anyone? How come you choose the army as
>>your employer?
>
>It is part of Basic Training. And it was in 1969. There was this Draft
>going on at the time.
>
>I managed to /not/ get sent into a combat zone. And weapon useage was
>strictly controlled in non-combat zones.
>
>>>> On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>>>> recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>>>> guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>>>
>>> I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>>> 1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>>> only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>>> between shooters and victims.
>>
>>Easy! If they would shoot the shooter, the police would not even have
>to get to
>>the place, so the problem will not arise.
>
>You are missing the point: if you 30 3rd-graders all firing at random,
>they will likely /all/ be dead very quickly. That the shooter dies as
>well is no consolation, as it deprives the public of the satisfaction
>of a trial.
>
Oddly, I have work-related experience with a similar scenario that
worked out a lot better than yours because of the lack of crazy
up here. Incel angry at pronouns decided to murder a prof during
class, two students jumped to the prof's defense while other students
attacked the incel. As this was Canada and not Heehawistan, the
incel had a knife, the students and prof were bare-handed, and
the other students had chairs. People were traumatized and injured
but nobody died. I am certain it would have been much worse if
Canada was the sort of place than handed out guns like candy to
any clearly deranged maniac.

I am very happy he didn't have a gun because mistakes were made and
I ended up two metres from him, between him and every exit from the
room he was in. With a gun, he might have shot his way or taken
hostages. As it was, I didn't even get lightly stabbed to death.

I wouldn't have credited the plastic chairs in UW classrooms as
being particularly efficacious weapons but they seem to have been.
By the time I ran into him, he was bleeding, bruised, and morose.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[D]

On Sun, 16 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:

>> That's fascinating! Did you ever kill anyone? How come you choose the army as
>> your employer?
>
> It is part of Basic Training. And it was in 1969. There was this Draft
> going on at the time.

That's horrible! I would never forgive the state if it wasted my life in that
way. I was lucky, when I grew up, sweden abolished forced military service, so I
did not have to. Now it is back though, so 10k children will get to waste 1 year
of their lives on complete nonesense.

> I managed to /not/ get sent into a combat zone. And weapon useage was
> strictly controlled in non-combat zones.

I congratulate you! This is the best way!

>>>> On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>>>> recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>>>> guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>>>
>>> I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>>> 1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>>> only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>>> between shooters and victims.
>>
>> Easy! If they would shoot the shooter, the police would not even have to get to
>> the place, so the problem will not arise.
>
> You are missing the point: if you 30 3rd-graders all firing at random,
> they will likely /all/ be dead very quickly. That the shooter dies as
> well is no consolation, as it deprives the public of the satisfaction
> of a trial.

I have not claimed there would be 30 3rd graders, and that all should shoot at
random. Hence the education before getting a gun license. Sweden is sadly not
the US.

Also, the school was not for 3rd graders. It was vocational level, so the
students were between 25 and 50.

A few months ago a father was shot in the face by a 15 year old since he told
him not to be rude and shout dirty words in front of his 12 year old son. If he
had a gun, he would be alive today.

Welcome to socialist sweden in 2025.

>> Note that the police arrived after 5 minutes. Then they camped outside waiting
>> for thing to calm down for about 45 minutes, and then they went in and found the
>> killer who by that time had killed 10 and committed suicide.
>
> Are you sure you aren't talking about a recent event in Texas?
>
> Even for Texas, that behavior was ... substandard.

Welcome to socialis sweden in 2025. Sweden is failing state. Criminals and
moslems are taking over. In a generation or two I would expect sweden to be a
majority moslem country. But it had a nice run of a 1000 years or so before
immigration totally destroyed it. I am happy that I moved away in time, since I
do not have to see the destruction daily. It is sad to hear it being described
by acquaintances though.

Only a Trump could turn sweden around, perhaps not even him.

>> Much better if a teacher had a gun and could just shoot the killer on sight.
>
> And then be shot by the police when they arrive, unless they follow
> police instruction to "drop the weapon!".

They will follow the instruction, no worries there.

> Because, as far the responding officers can tell, the teacher /is/ the
> shooter because the teacher is holding a gun.

Being trained, he will not stand there with a loaded gun in his hands for 45
minutes that's an absurd assumption. Swedish police are also not cowboy police.
In fact, they do very, very little, and rarely do they ever manage to catch any
serious criminals.

> This sort of thing has happened in living memory (several years ago):
> a homeowner shot an intruder, called the police, wandered outside with
> the gun in his hand, and ignored them. His wife was a widow shortly
> thereafter.

That was his choice, and his reaction. Sad, but without the gun it would have
been 2 dead innocents, and the killer would win.

>> Also, add to that the deterrence factor for the killer knowing that he goes into
>> a school where the employees are all carrying guns. Then he would not do it.
>
> The only form of deterrence that works in capital punishment: a hanged
> perp is a perp that is deterred from ever re-offending.

This is the truth! In europe there is no death penalty and killers tend to get
out after 10-15 years or so, except in some very political or extreme cases. I
am in favour of the death penalty.

It is a great kindness to the criminal as well, and society does not have to pay
for him all his life.

>>> 2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
>>> to be /much/ higher.
>>
>> Not correct statements. Obviously people are trained before being allowed to use
>> a gun. It is easy... you just point and click. I've done it myself on several
>> occasions (using targets, not humans!). =)
>
> Depends on the State. And do you /really/ think 3rd-graders are going
> to remember their training when they are excited?

See above. I have never spoken about 3:rd graders. This school was a vocational
school.

[Titus G]

On 17/02/25 05:29, Paul S Person wrote:
> You are missing the point: if you 30 3rd-graders all firing at random,
> they will likely /all/ be dead very quickly. That the shooter dies as
> well is no consolation, as it deprives the public of the satisfaction
> of a trial.

How would you determine who was the original shooter if they all die?
(Unless, of course, there was a muslim or failing that, a dark skinned
classmate.)

[Paul S Person]

On Mon, 17 Feb 2025 17:29:03 +1300, Titus G <***@nowhere.com> wrote:

>On 17/02/25 05:29, Paul S Person wrote:
>> You are missing the point: if you 30 3rd-graders all firing at random,
>> they will likely /all/ be dead very quickly. That the shooter dies as
>> well is no consolation, as it deprives the public of the satisfaction
>> of a trial.
>
>How would you determine who was the original shooter if they all die?
>(Unless, of course, there was a muslim or failing that, a dark skinned
>classmate.)

Good point.

You couldn't even be sure he was actually in there -- that is, that
he/she/it hadn't just turned tail and run.

That's in general. In many cases, the school would be able to
determine who wasn't supposed to be in the building, let alone that
room. And then there's the social media trail to follow.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[Scott Dorsey]

In article <vouduf$10aef$***@dont-email.me>, Titus G <***@nowhere.com> wrote:
>On 17/02/25 05:29, Paul S Person wrote:
>> You are missing the point: if you 30 3rd-graders all firing at random,
>> they will likely /all/ be dead very quickly. That the shooter dies as
>> well is no consolation, as it deprives the public of the satisfaction
>> of a trial.
>
>How would you determine who was the original shooter if they all die?
>(Unless, of course, there was a muslim or failing that, a dark skinned
>classmate.)

It's always the butler.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

[Scott Dorsey]

Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>between shooters and victims.

The idea here is that the police won't be needed presumably, as the bad
guys will be dead by the time they get there.

>2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
>to be /much/ higher.

Yes, but not as high as it will be once kids start bringing mortars to
school to protect them from the kids with the grenade launchers.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Fri, 14 Feb 2025 22:55:18 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>On Fri, 14 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Lynn
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>>>
>>>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>>>
>>>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>>>
>>>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>>>
>>>> Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>>>> a spiritual being!
>>>>
>>>> Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>>>> against crazy republicans? ;)
>>>
>>> More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>>>
>>> Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.
>>
>>But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
>>it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)
>
>The Army taught me.
>
>But no amount of training can make up for basic klutziness.
>
>>On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>>recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>>guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>
>I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>between shooters and victims.
>2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
>to be /much/ higher.

Americans, who are armed to the teeth, routinely send their little
darling off to heaven in batch lots, whereas I think the total
number of school shooting fatalities in Canada, where we're not
fucking deranged, is sixteen. Total. Not 'in the last five minutes',
but even.

On the plus side, death is probably a mercy for Americans kids.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[Lynn McGuire]

On 2/16/2025 8:10 AM, James Nicoll wrote:
> In article <***@4ax.com>,
> Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>> On Fri, 14 Feb 2025 22:55:18 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, 14 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>>>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Lynn
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>>>>
>>>>> Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>>>>> a spiritual being!
>>>>>
>>>>> Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>>>>> against crazy republicans? ;)
>>>>
>>>> More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>>>>
>>>> Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.
>>>
>>> But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education when
>>> it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)
>>
>> The Army taught me.
>>
>> But no amount of training can make up for basic klutziness.
>>
>>> On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>>> recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>>> guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>>
>> I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>> 1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>> only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>> between shooters and victims.
>> 2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
>> to be /much/ higher.
>
> Americans, who are armed to the teeth, routinely send their little
> darling off to heaven in batch lots, whereas I think the total
> number of school shooting fatalities in Canada, where we're not
> fucking deranged, is sixteen. Total. Not 'in the last five minutes',
> but even.
>
> On the plus side, death is probably a mercy for Americans kids.

James, that is not funny.

Lynn

[D]

On Mon, 17 Feb 2025, Lynn McGuire wrote:

> On 2/16/2025 8:10 AM, James Nicoll wrote:
>> In article <***@4ax.com>,
>> Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>> On Fri, 14 Feb 2025 22:55:18 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Fri, 14 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>>>>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid>
>>>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines.
>>>>>>>>>> And
>>>>>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument,
>>>>>>>>>> whatever
>>>>>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls
>>>>>>>>>> are
>>>>>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point,
>>>>>>>>> Lincoln
>>>>>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Lynn
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you
>>>>>> as
>>>>>> a spiritual being!
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>>>>>> against crazy republicans? ;)
>>>>>
>>>>> More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>>>>>
>>>>> Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.
>>>>
>>>> But surely in the US you must be able to find the very best education
>>>> when
>>>> it comes to how to handle a gun? It's an invaluable life skill! =)
>>>
>>> The Army taught me.
>>>
>>> But no amount of training can make up for basic klutziness.
>>>
>>>> On a sad note, I think about how many lives could have been saved in the
>>>> recent swedish school shooting if only the students and/or teachers had
>>>> guns of their own. Then probably only 1 or 2 students would have died. =(
>>>
>>> I'm not familiar with the specific situation, but two things occur:
>>> 1) If everybody is shooting, how are the Police supposed to take out
>>> only the bad guys? It's a lot easier when there is a clear difference
>>> between shooters and victims.
>>> 2) If that much lead is flying around, I would expect the death toll
>>> to be /much/ higher.
>>
>> Americans, who are armed to the teeth, routinely send their little
>> darling off to heaven in batch lots, whereas I think the total
>> number of school shooting fatalities in Canada, where we're not
>> fucking deranged, is sixteen. Total. Not 'in the last five minutes',
>> but even.
>>
>> On the plus side, death is probably a mercy for Americans kids.
>
> James, that is not funny.
>
> Lynn

This is a beautiful example of Trump Derangement Syndrome I think. But I
heard that Trump is having Mr. Kennedy set aside funds to make treatment
of it cheaper for people.

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>
>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>
>>>>> Lynn
>>>>
>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>
>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>
>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>
>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>
>>Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>>a spiritual being!
>>
>>Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>>against crazy republicans? ;)
>
>More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>
>Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.

My older brother has had many fun adventures with chainsaws: nearly
crushed when a branch fell from the top of the elm he was bringing
down, had the chainsaw hit a knot and buck up towards his face,
bounced a running saw off his unprotected knee...

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[Paul S Person]

On Sat, 15 Feb 2025 17:48:27 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>In article <***@4ax.com>,
>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 22:23:34 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:59:49 -0600, Lynn McGuire
>>>> <***@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 2/12/2025 3:59 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>> On 2/12/2025 11:00 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese
>>>>>>>>> AI or constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Kind of like Trump has Congress. And soon will the Courts.[1]
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> And, being an old fan of horror films, I /enjoy/ scary headlines. And
>>>>>>> the various reactions to them, the more hysterical the better. For
>>>>>>> each atrocity brings us closer to the inevitable denoument, whatever
>>>>>>> that may be.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>>>>>>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>>>>>>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>>>>>>> simply telling them they are fired.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Lincoln would have put the rogue judges in jail.  At one point, Lincoln
>>>>>> had 2,300 ??? political people (newspaper editors, etc) in jail that
>>>>>> were actively fighting against the Civil War.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Lynn
>>>>>
>>>>> Trump may have to put these rogue judges in jail. He has my ok.
>>>>
>>>> That would certainly speed things up ... to the inevitable denoument.
>>>>
>>>> Whatever it may be.
>>>>
>>>> Buckle up! Rough ride ahead!
>>>
>>>Be safe Paul! I do not like your ideology, but I sometimes respect you as
>>>a spiritual being!
>>>
>>>Maybe buying a gun would be able to make you defend yourself better
>>>against crazy republicans? ;)
>>
>>More likely, it would allow me to shoot myself in the foot. Literally.
>>
>>Same reason I don't own a chainsaw.
>
>My older brother has had many fun adventures with chainsaws: nearly
>crushed when a branch fell from the top of the elm he was bringing
>down, had the chainsaw hit a knot and buck up towards his face,
>bounced a running saw off his unprotected knee...

A great summary of my concerns!
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[Scott Dorsey]

Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>
>>You forgot about the American AI.
>
>That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.

Hitler destroyed his nuclear bomb program because he didn't believe in
"Jewish Science." The thing is, science isn't Jewish or Aryan, it is
just science.

Likewise, AI isn't American or Chinese, it's just math. And when it is
open-sourced it becomes math for everyone, too.
--scott

--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

[Titus G]

On 13/02/25 13:25, Scott Dorsey wrote:
> Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>
>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>
> Hitler destroyed his nuclear bomb program because he didn't believe in
> "Jewish Science." The thing is, science isn't Jewish or Aryan, it is
> just science.
>
> Likewise, AI isn't American or Chinese, it's just math. And when it is
> open-sourced it becomes math for everyone, too.
> --scott
>

But something so complex as AI with computer vision must take umpteen
billion lines of code. How long would it take for American scientists to
read and understand the Chinese open source?

[Scott Dorsey]

In article <vojokq$2jp83$***@dont-email.me>, Titus G <***@nowhere.com> wrote:
>
>But something so complex as AI with computer vision must take umpteen
>billion lines of code. How long would it take for American scientists to
>read and understand the Chinese open source?

Probably as long as it took for the Chinese scientists to read and understand
the American open source of the last generation.

But the honest truth is that the ML algorithms are not that difficult... it is
just one big array of weights and training the algorithm sets the weights
up and then you evaluate new input based upon those weights.

What is difficult is the training process... and then once you have trained
it, being able to debug it since you can't really tell what changes are
tracked down to what training input very easily. But this is also the
difficult part about natural intelligence too.

I can't speak directly about Deepseek (which is both an algorithm and that
weighting set... as well as a service) because I am explicitly forbidden
from looking at it.
--scott
--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

[Paul S Person]

On 13 Feb 2025 00:25:58 -0000, ***@panix.com (Scott Dorsey) wrote:

>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>>You forgot about the American AI.
>>
>>That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>
>Hitler destroyed his nuclear bomb program because he didn't believe in
>"Jewish Science." The thing is, science isn't Jewish or Aryan, it is
>just science.

I suspect it had a lot more to do with limited resources, better spent
on more tanks. But racism did affect the war, on both sides.

>Likewise, AI isn't American or Chinese, it's just math. And when it is
>open-sourced it becomes math for everyone, too.

I was referring to the actual manifestations, not the underlying
theory.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[William Hyde]

Paul S Person wrote:
> On 13 Feb 2025 00:25:58 -0000, ***@panix.com (Scott Dorsey) wrote:
>
>> Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>>
>>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>>
>> Hitler destroyed his nuclear bomb program because he didn't believe in
>> "Jewish Science." The thing is, science isn't Jewish or Aryan, it is
>> just science.
>
> I suspect it had a lot more to do with limited resources, better spent
> on more tanks. But racism did affect the war, on both sides.

When I was taking complex analysis we came to the study of elliptic
functions. There are two mathematically equivalent formulations of
these, the Weierstrass and the Jacobi.

According to our prof, the Weierstrass formulation easily lends itself
to the formulation of proofs about elliptic functions, but is very
difficult to apply in practice. The Jacobi function has the opposite
nature (naturally we used the Weierstrass formulation).

He went on to say that in WWII German scientists and engineers,
particularly on the atomic weapons project, were ordered to use the
"Aryan" Weierstrass formulation rather than the "Jewish" Jacobi.

This, he said, slowed work down considerably and would have brought some
areas to a stop except that some people secretly did their work with the
Jacobi formulation, only translating the final product into the
Weierstrass functional form.


William Hyde

[D]

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Scott Dorsey wrote:

> Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, "s|b" <***@privacy.invalid> wrote:
>>>
>>> You forgot about the American AI.
>>
>> That's old hat. Chinese AI has rendered it ... superfluous.
>
> Hitler destroyed his nuclear bomb program because he didn't believe in
> "Jewish Science." The thing is, science isn't Jewish or Aryan, it is
> just science.
>
> Likewise, AI isn't American or Chinese, it's just math. And when it is
> open-sourced it becomes math for everyone, too.
> --scott

This is the truth!

[Titus G]

On 13/02/25 06:00, Paul S Person wrote:
>
> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
> simply telling them they are fired.

Unless they fire first. (Perhaps mistaking him for a dark skinned teen).

[Paul S Person]

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 16:23:26 +1300, Titus G <***@nowhere.com> wrote:

>On 13/02/25 06:00, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>> [1] As the judge in Watergate pointed out, the Federal Marshalls are
>> what the Court uses to enforce it edicts, and they are Federal
>> Employees. Which means the President can escape arrest by them by
>> simply telling them they are fired.
>
>Unless they fire first. (Perhaps mistaking him for a dark skinned teen).

Actually, I think the judge was explaining why he didn't just have the
tapes seized.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[Charles Packer]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 15:38:13 +0100, s|b wrote:

> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 08:52:00 -0000 (UTC), Charles Packer wrote:
>
>> Between now and May at least it won't match bird flu, Chinese AI or
>> constitutional upheaval at generating scary headlines.
>
> You forgot about the American AI.

I was referring to headlines about Chinese prowess in AI
development overtaking American abilities.

[Scott Dorsey]

Charles Packer <***@cpacker.org> wrote:
>
>I was referring to headlines about Chinese prowess in AI
>development overtaking American abilities.

"A penny's worth of better algorithm beats a thousand dollars
worth of faster hardware any day." -- gus baird

--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

[D]

On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:

> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>
>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>
>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>
>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>
>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>
> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
> accuracy.

This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.

[Paul S Person]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:

>
>
>On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>
>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>
>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>
>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>
>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>
>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>
>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>> accuracy.
>
>This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.

I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
space rock hitting an ocean can do.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>
>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>
>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>
>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>Telescope to
>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>than eight
>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>
>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>
>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>
>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>>> accuracy.
>>
>>This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>
>I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>space rock hitting an ocean can do.

Alas, I just came across the relevant equations.

wave height for an impact in deep water is roughly

h = 6.5m [y/gigaton] 0.54 [1000km/r]

h = wave height
r = range to impact
y = yield

Idealised wave run in (which is to say, not applicable to any real region):

Xmax ~ 1.0km [h/10 meters]^[4/3]

Plug in 8 MT and that's 0.02 meters at 1000 km, with a run in of 0.005 m.
I think.

As wave height is linear wrt r but run in has that power of 1.3,
reducing r should have interesting effects on run in. However,
running the numbers suggests that by the time you're close enough
to worry about the wave, you're also close enough to be crushed
and set on fire by the impact.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[D]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:

> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>
>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>
>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>
>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>
>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>
>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>
>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>>> accuracy.
>>
>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>
> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>

I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
outside new york.

Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
couple of years advance warning we're good to go.

[Paul S Person]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:

>
>
>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>
>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>
>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>
>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>
>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>>>> accuracy.
>>>
>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>
>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>
>
>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
>outside new york.
>
>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.

First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
/Deep Impact/.

Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".

Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.

But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
the film exaggerated things a bit.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>Telescope to
>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>than eight
>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>asteroid will
>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>probability of a
>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>
>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to
>improve their
>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>
>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>>
>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>
>>
>>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
>>outside new york.
>>
>>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
>>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>
>First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
>/Deep Impact/.
>
>Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>
>Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>
>But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
>the film exaggerated things a bit.

My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.

Although in retrospect, I'd expect more re-entering ejecta than DI
featured. The KT impact may have left little bits of charred dino-
saur on the Moon.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[Paul S Person]

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>In article <***@4ax.com>,
>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>>Telescope to
>>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>>than eight
>>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>>asteroid will
>>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>>probability of a
>>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to
>>improve their
>>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>>
>>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>>>
>>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>>
>>>
>>>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
>>>outside new york.
>>>
>>>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
>>>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>>
>>First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
>>/Deep Impact/.
>>
>>Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>>
>>Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>>
>>But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
>>the film exaggerated things a bit.
>
>My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
>a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.

That's the one that hit the ocean, not the much larger planet-killer
to come, right?

So, what do the formulae show for the /Deep Impact/ ocean strike?

>Although in retrospect, I'd expect more re-entering ejecta than DI
>featured. The KT impact may have left little bits of charred dino-
>saur on the Moon.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
>Nicoll) wrote:
>
>>In article <***@4ax.com>,
>>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>>>Telescope to
>>>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>>>than eight
>>>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the
>asteroid
>>>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our
>planet have
>>>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it
>eventually reaches
>>>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>>>asteroid will
>>>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>>>probability of a
>>>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to
>>>improve their
>>>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>>>>
>>>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
>>>>outside new york.
>>>>
>>>>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
>>>>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>>>
>>>First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
>>>/Deep Impact/.
>>>
>>>Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>>>
>>>Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>>>
>>>But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
>>>the film exaggerated things a bit.
>>
>>My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
>>a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.
>
>That's the one that hit the ocean, not the much larger planet-killer
>to come, right?
>
>So, what do the formulae show for the /Deep Impact/ ocean strike?
>
wave height for an impact in deep water is roughly

h = 6.5m [y/gigaton] 0.54 [1000km/r]

h = wave height
r = range to impact
y = yield

Idealised wave run in (which is to say, not applicable to any real region):

Xmax ~ 1.0km [h/10 meters]^[4/3]

Impact energy in Deep Impact seems to be 500,000 MT.

At 1000 km, the wave would be 6.5x500x.54 or about 1800 m, which seems
kind of bad.

h/10 is 180, so Xmax is almost exactly 1000 km, which also seems bad.
Mind you, that wave is going to have a heck of a time getting past
the Appalachians so Ontario should be fine.


--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[Paul S Person]

On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 16:40:22 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>In article <***@4ax.com>,
>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>On Thu, 13 Feb 2025 17:19:14 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
>>Nicoll) wrote:
>>
>>>In article <***@4ax.com>,
>>>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space
>>>>Telescope to
>>>>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less
>>>>than eight
>>>>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the
>>asteroid
>>>>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our
>>planet have
>>>>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it
>>eventually reaches
>>>>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>>>>asteroid will
>>>>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>>>>probability of a
>>>>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to
>>>>improve their
>>>>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>>>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>>>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>>>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
>>>>>outside new york.
>>>>>
>>>>>Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
>>>>>couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>>>>
>>>>First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
>>>>/Deep Impact/.
>>>>
>>>>Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>>>>
>>>>Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>>>>
>>>>But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
>>>>the film exaggerated things a bit.
>>>
>>>My numbers were for a dinky 8 MT impact, whereas Deep Impact involved
>>>a rock the size of Everest. Whole different game.
>>
>>That's the one that hit the ocean, not the much larger planet-killer
>>to come, right?
>>
>>So, what do the formulae show for the /Deep Impact/ ocean strike?
>>
>wave height for an impact in deep water is roughly
>
>h = 6.5m [y/gigaton] 0.54 [1000km/r]
>
>h = wave height
>r = range to impact
>y = yield
>
>Idealised wave run in (which is to say, not applicable to any real region):
>
>Xmax ~ 1.0km [h/10 meters]^[4/3]
>
>Impact energy in Deep Impact seems to be 500,000 MT.
>
>At 1000 km, the wave would be 6.5x500x.54 or about 1800 m, which seems
>kind of bad.

It looks /very/ impressive in the movie!

>h/10 is 180, so Xmax is almost exactly 1000 km, which also seems bad.
>Mind you, that wave is going to have a heck of a time getting past
>the Appalachians so Ontario should be fine.

The second one, had it hit, would have hit on the Canadian Shield
(IIRC). Bing suggests that this is not Ontario, but, since this is
"the planet-killer", not actually being hit wouldn't matter much.

In the film, we see it go up a valley while the survivors climb the
surrounding hills. This is the bit I am using as a counter-example to
the "water lapping gently at the seashore" nonsense promoted by some.
The coastal cities, of course, are gone. I would think Labrador would
be impacted as well, but I'm sure how far north of the impact they
are.

I seem to recall from the bit at the end indicating that the water
reached over the Appalachians into the Ohio valley (and related areas)
before receding. The amount of water and the force with which it moved
would, of course, be constantly reducing once it hit land.

So, yes, Ontario (and everything West of the Mississippi for that
matter) would have escaped.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[James Nicoll]

In article <***@4ax.com>,
Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 16:40:22 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
>Nicoll) wrote:
>
[on the Deep Impact impact]
>>>
>>wave height for an impact in deep water is roughly
>>
>>h = 6.5m [y/gigaton] 0.54 [1000km/r]
>>
>>h = wave height
>>r = range to impact
>>y = yield
>>
>>Idealised wave run in (which is to say, not applicable to any real region):
>>
>>Xmax ~ 1.0km [h/10 meters]^[4/3]
>>
>>Impact energy in Deep Impact seems to be 500,000 MT.
>>
>>At 1000 km, the wave would be 6.5x500x.54 or about 1800 m, which seems
>>kind of bad.
>
>It looks /very/ impressive in the movie!
>
>>h/10 is 180, so Xmax is almost exactly 1000 km, which also seems bad.
>>Mind you, that wave is going to have a heck of a time getting past
>>the Appalachians so Ontario should be fine.
>
>The second one, had it hit, would have hit on the Canadian Shield
>(IIRC). Bing suggests that this is not Ontario, but, since this is
>"the planet-killer", not actually being hit wouldn't matter much.
>
>In the film, we see it go up a valley while the survivors climb the
>surrounding hills. This is the bit I am using as a counter-example to
>the "water lapping gently at the seashore" nonsense promoted by some.
>The coastal cities, of course, are gone. I would think Labrador would
>be impacted as well, but I'm sure how far north of the impact they
>are.
>
>I seem to recall from the bit at the end indicating that the water
>reached over the Appalachians into the Ohio valley (and related areas)
>before receding. The amount of water and the force with which it moved
>would, of course, be constantly reducing once it hit land.
>
>So, yes, Ontario (and everything West of the Mississippi for that
>matter) would have escaped.

I wonder how having billions of tons of salt water deposited affects
soil? Aside from the obvious erosion issues, I mean.

--
My reviews can be found at http://jamesdavisnicoll.com/
My tor pieces at https://www.tor.com/author/james-davis-nicoll/
My Dreamwidth at https://james-davis-nicoll.dreamwidth.org/
My patreon is at https://www.patreon.com/jamesdnicoll

[Paul S Person]

On Mon, 17 Feb 2025 18:11:03 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
Nicoll) wrote:

>In article <***@4ax.com>,
>Paul S Person <***@old.netcom.invalid> wrote:
>>On Sun, 16 Feb 2025 16:40:22 -0000 (UTC), ***@panix.com (James
>>Nicoll) wrote:
>>
>[on the Deep Impact impact]
>>>>
>>>wave height for an impact in deep water is roughly
>>>
>>>h = 6.5m [y/gigaton] 0.54 [1000km/r]
>>>
>>>h = wave height
>>>r = range to impact
>>>y = yield
>>>
>>>Idealised wave run in (which is to say, not applicable to any real region):
>>>
>>>Xmax ~ 1.0km [h/10 meters]^[4/3]
>>>
>>>Impact energy in Deep Impact seems to be 500,000 MT.
>>>
>>>At 1000 km, the wave would be 6.5x500x.54 or about 1800 m, which seems
>>>kind of bad.
>>
>>It looks /very/ impressive in the movie!
>>
>>>h/10 is 180, so Xmax is almost exactly 1000 km, which also seems bad.
>>>Mind you, that wave is going to have a heck of a time getting past
>>>the Appalachians so Ontario should be fine.
>>
>>The second one, had it hit, would have hit on the Canadian Shield
>>(IIRC). Bing suggests that this is not Ontario, but, since this is
>>"the planet-killer", not actually being hit wouldn't matter much.
>>
>>In the film, we see it go up a valley while the survivors climb the
>>surrounding hills. This is the bit I am using as a counter-example to
>>the "water lapping gently at the seashore" nonsense promoted by some.
>>The coastal cities, of course, are gone. I would think Labrador would
>>be impacted as well, but I'm sure how far north of the impact they
>>are.
>>
>>I seem to recall from the bit at the end indicating that the water
>>reached over the Appalachians into the Ohio valley (and related areas)
>>before receding. The amount of water and the force with which it moved
>>would, of course, be constantly reducing once it hit land.
>>
>>So, yes, Ontario (and everything West of the Mississippi for that
>>matter) would have escaped.
>
>I wonder how having billions of tons of salt water deposited affects
>soil? Aside from the obvious erosion issues, I mean.

Not well, I suspect. If it were beneficial, they'd be using salt water
for irrigation. I am referring, of course, to land that is not
normally exposed to salt water, not to some coastal regions where the
plants have adapted.

Boundary markers might also be affected. Lots of surveyors needed!

IIRC, some have theorized that geometry began in Egypt to reset the
field boundaries after each year's flooding.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[D]

On Thu, 13 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:

> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 22:31:04 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025, Paul S Person wrote:
>>
>>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>>
>>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>>
>>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>>>>> accuracy.
>>>>
>>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>>
>>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>>>
>>
>> I thought you smart enough not to assume random ocean meant 10 meters
>> outside new york.
>>
>> Tsunami schnunami, we've dealth with that and survived. If we have a
>> couple of years advance warning we're good to go.
>
> First, as has been pointed out to me, the film I meant to cite was
> /Deep Impact/.
>
> Second, it is not "10 meters off New York".
>
> Third, we had a year. We were /not/ good to go.
>
> But I have also read a post with actual figures in it, so apparently
> the film exaggerated things a bit.
>

No go, was talking about original reported event.

[Lynn McGuire]

On 2/12/2025 11:01 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>
>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>
>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>
>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>
>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>
>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>
>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>>> accuracy.
>>
>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>
> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
> space rock hitting an ocean can do.

Do you mean "Deep Impact" movie ? I love that movie, I have watched it
several times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W80IY4i6u4A

Lynn

[Paul S Person]

On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 16:01:56 -0600, Lynn McGuire
<***@gmail.com> wrote:

>On 2/12/2025 11:01 AM, Paul S Person wrote:
>> On Wed, 12 Feb 2025 11:28:09 +0100, D <***@example.net> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, 11 Feb 2025, Dimensional Traveler wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 2/11/2025 5:12 PM, Lynn McGuire wrote:
>>>>> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-
>>>>> asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>>>>>
>>>>> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope to
>>>>> study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than eight
>>>>> years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the asteroid
>>>>> was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our planet have
>>>>> increased slightly since then, according to the European Space Agency."
>>>>>
>>>>> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>>>>> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually reaches
>>>>> this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the asteroid will
>>>>> most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with monitoring its
>>>>> physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the probability of a
>>>>> crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>>>>>
>>>>> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?
>>>>>
>>>> I don't see any wolf crying. They are refining their data to improve their
>>>> accuracy.
>>>
>>> This would be my interpretation. Plenty of time left, they are keeping an
>>> eye on it. Will it hit? If not, no problem. If yes, where will it hit? If
>>> random ocean, no problem. If not random ocean, maybe little bit problem.
>>
>> I suggest watching /Sudden Impact/ to get an idea of what a chunk of
>> space rock hitting an ocean can do.
>
>Do you mean "Deep Impact" movie ? I love that movie, I have watched it
>several times.
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W80IY4i6u4A

Why, yes, I believe I did.

My mind is clearly playing tricks on me again.

The film cited is, of course, completely different.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[Paul S Person]

On Tue, 11 Feb 2025 19:12:24 -0600, Lynn McGuire
<***@gmail.com> wrote:

>"NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>
>https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>
>"Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope
>to study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than
>eight years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the
>asteroid was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our
>planet have increased slightly since then, according to the European
>Space Agency."
>
>“The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
>carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually
>reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
>asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with
>monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
>probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>
>Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?

Very likely.

OK, Christi Noem, current Secretary of Homeland Security, would agree
with you, having stated publicly and so officially as a member of the
current gummint that the gummint cannot be trusted.

But if we restrict the poll to sane persons, you are very likely alone
or very nearly so.
--
"Here lies the Tuscan poet Aretino,
Who evil spoke of everyone but God,
Giving as his excuse, 'I never knew him.'"

[William Hyde]

Lynn McGuire wrote:
> "NASA to study "city-killer" asteroid as odds of hitting Earth go up"
>
> https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/nasa-to-study-city-killer-asteroid-as-odds-of-hitting-earth-go-up/ar-AA1yLdde
>
>
> "Astronomers are enlisting the help of NASA's James Webb Space Telescope
> to study an asteroid that has a small chance of striking Earth less than
> eight years from now. Characterized as a potential "city-killer," the
> asteroid was first detected in December and its odds of impacting our
> planet have increased slightly since then, according to the European
> Space Agency."
>
> “The space rock is formally named 2024 YR4. Scientists say it currently
> carries a 2% risk of making contact with Earth when it eventually
> reaches this part of the solar system on Dec. 22, 2032. Although the
> asteroid will most likely pass by without issue, those tasked with
> monitoring its physical attributes and potential have shifted upward the
> probability of a crash since 2024 YR4 was initially discovered.”
>
> Am I the only person who is suspicious of NASA crying wolf ?

I don't recall that in the original story the boy cried:

"Two percent chance of Wolf, eventually".

If he had the villagers might have replied:

"Seems a bit low".

William Hyde