Discussion:
_Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline_ by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson
Add Reply
Lynn McGuire
2019-11-27 20:50:08 UTC
Reply
Permalink
_Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline_ by Darrell
Bricker and John Ibbitson
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1984823213/

"An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher
make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin
to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic
landscape"

Science fiction or science fact ?

No, I have not read the book nor do I plan to do so.

Hat tip to:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/2019/11/27/the-flaw-at-the-center/

Lynn
p***@gmail.com
2019-11-27 22:11:58 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Considering that very many countries are at or below
replacement, the general notion isn't automatically wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

Replacement is about 2.1 children per woman. The world
is at about 2.4. More than 80 countries are below 2.1.
Nearly always, as technology spreads birth rates fall.
People find other things to do, and they find ways to
not have children while doing them. Condoms, pills,
notions, lotions, etc. and etc.

And abortions. 50 million abortions in the US since
Roe-v-Wade.

How this will play out in 20 or 30 years is difficult
to be confident.

Just to play with the idea, suppose that there is a
genetic pattern that causes people to continue to
breed under increased tech conditions. And suppose
there is another pattern that discourages breeding
under these conditions. The breed-in-the-face-of-tech
genes would clearly become more common. So in two or
three generations, anybody who still likes lots of
kids will come to dominate the gene pool. Those families
might start to pull the birth rates back up.

But I'm not prepared to take any bets in either direction.
Dimensional Traveler
2019-11-27 22:33:57 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
_Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline_ by Darrell
Bricker and John Ibbitson
   https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1984823213/
"An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher
make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin
to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic
landscape"
Science fiction or science fact ?
"Until recently baby production was largely dependent on slave labour;
as soon as women are allowed to answer the question "Would you like to
squeeze as many objects the size of a watermelon out of your body as it
takes to kill you?" they generally answer "No, thank you." This leads to
falling birthrates everywhere women are not kept enslaved and ignorant
of the alternatives." - James Nicoll, 2005
--
"You need to believe in things that aren't true. How else can they become?"
Ted Nolan <tednolan>
2019-11-27 22:45:06 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Lynn McGuire
_Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline_ by Darrell
Bricker and John Ibbitson
   https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1984823213/
"An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher
make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin
to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic
landscape"
Science fiction or science fact ?
"Until recently baby production was largely dependent on slave labour;
as soon as women are allowed to answer the question "Would you like to
squeeze as many objects the size of a watermelon out of your body as it
takes to kill you?" they generally answer "No, thank you." This leads to
falling birthrates everywhere women are not kept enslaved and ignorant
of the alternatives." - James Nicoll, 2005
Farmer had a somewhat optimistic take in "70 Years of Decpop" (after a
very tragic start). Bujold says the answer is technology. Immortality
has got to be in the mix as well..
--
columbiaclosings.com
What's not in Columbia anymore..
Robert Carnegie
2019-11-27 23:11:23 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Lynn McGuire
_Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline_ by Darrell
Bricker and John Ibbitson
   https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1984823213/
"An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher
make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin
to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic
landscape"
Science fiction or science fact ?
"Until recently baby production was largely dependent on slave labour;
as soon as women are allowed to answer the question "Would you like to
squeeze as many objects the size of a watermelon out of your body as it
takes to kill you?" they generally answer "No, thank you." This leads to
falling birthrates everywhere women are not kept enslaved and ignorant
of the alternatives." - James Nicoll, 2005
People are looking into glass wombs. So to speak.
-dsr-
2019-11-27 23:22:11 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
_Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline_ by Darrell
Bricker and John Ibbitson
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1984823213/
"An award-winning journalist and leading international social researcher
make the provocative argument that the global population will soon begin
to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic
landscape"
Science fiction or science fact ?
Predictive speculation.

There's this phenomenon called "demographic transition" which is
the observation that people with more material wealth tend to have
fewer children. This is correlated to efficiencies in agriculture,
the expense of raising children vs the benefits derived from them,
improved healthcare, increased lifespan, and urbanization.

If the standard of living goes up widely, the local population decreases
from the previous level.

How provocative is this? Depends on how narrowly and sharply they are predicting
a change.

-dsr-

Loading...