Post by Lynn McGuire Post by David DeLaney
So... I've been thinking, and I don't recall any forecasting in the literature
that as the year 2020 began, one of the continents would be ENGULFED IN FLAMES.
Dave, more evidence that the LHC managed to drop us into the Bad Timeline
"Australia Fires … And Misfires"
Here the author, who lives in California so has no direct knowledge of anything in Australia, claims that rainfall has been higher in Australia recently.
What he's ignoring is that Australia is almost 80% the size of the the USA
Rainfall has been higher in the North but lower in the South and Eastern seaboard.
The article has a graph of rainfall in NSW and it has rainfall above the average rainfall in 4 years since 2000
The last year shown in the graph is the lowest rainfall ever recorded in NSW.
But rather than look at that he's arbitrarily decided to consider the last 50 years and say that's wetter than the first 50 years of the 20th century (I don't know how directly comparable the readings are, how did the coverage compare, does the equipment used in both eras deal with evaporation the same way etc)
Even apart from that not all rainfall is equal for all purposes, a quick check suggests that there's been more regular floods in NSW since 2000 than before because of more high intensity rainfalls. Which isn't as useful for vegetation or bushfire mitigation as more regular, lower intensity rainfall.
I address the point about fire reduction burns later.
Post by Lynn McGuire
"It has been hotter, fires have burnt larger areas"
So his evidence that it's been hotter in the past is measurements from 1 year at one weather station from 38-39.
He doesn't provide any data from that station over the last 22 years so he provides no evidence that 38-39 was hotter than now even in that 1 location.
has 2018-19 as the hottest average temperature across victoria since decent records were taken (back around 1910, before that the temperature readings weren't standardised)
33 weather stations had their highest temperature reading ever although many of them don't have a long history
AS for his claims about bushfires
- fuel reduction burns have happened, there have been problems with them because hot and dry conditions mean that often it's not safe to perform them.
- in bad enough conditions fuel reduction burns don't have much impact on fires. One of the towns that was badly hit by a fire in December had the fire come through an area that had been burned off 3 months earlier. One of the towns in Victoria that was hit in the last week had a fire approach through an area that a previous bushfire had already gone through this summer.
As for fatalities, my brother in law is a member of the VFS locally, based on discussions with him there have been a lot of changes in approach since 2009 to reduce fatalities
In the black saturday fires 113 people died inside homes, now people are evacuated.
Despite that we're now up to 25 deaths (plus people missing, the last I heard that was up around 20 but some of them may have been found and some of them might be part of why the deaths is higher than it was yesterday)
The Author claims that during the Black Friday fires in 1939 2 million hectares were burnt, currently we're at about 6.3 million hectares this bushfire season, and it's still got months to go.
We also have modern fire fighting techniques, transportation and technology so we should be a lot better at fighting fires than we were in the 30s
In short there's bullshit claims that we haven't been doing hazard reduction burns
There's extremely dubious analysis of historical temperature and rainfall.
They completely ignore that some of the current bushfires started in September, that's early Spring. The traditional bushfire season is December to March/April.
We've had bushfires going for 3 months and probably will for another 3-4 months...