Discussion:
Dilbert: CEO does math
(too old to reply)
Lynn McGuire
2020-05-29 18:51:41 UTC
Permalink
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29

The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/

And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.

Lynn
Alan Baker
2020-05-29 18:55:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
Great. So 329 Million times 0.26% is...

855,000 deaths.
Post by Lynn McGuire
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
I note you ignore the thrust of the article...
Mopoleum
2020-05-29 20:31:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
Great. So 329 Million times 0.26% is...
855,000 deaths.
Post by Lynn McGuire
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-
covid
Post by Alan Baker
Post by Lynn McGuire
-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
I note you ignore the thrust of the article...
The article leads by noting that over 0.2% of the entire population of
NYC has died from it. So far.

Based on only official counts, which are indisputably low, 0.27% of NYC
has died from it. The only way that could lead to the conclusion that
the rate is 0.26% would be if 104% of NYC residents have contracted it.

NYC is not always representative of the country as a whole, but I
sincerely doubt 4% of NYC is conjoined twins and people with multiple
personality disorders.

The author is right -- there is no way that the CDC number is accurate.
Dorothy J Heydt
2020-05-29 19:41:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
"Prediction," said Neils Bohr, "is very difficult, especially
about the future."
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
Chrysi Cat
2020-05-29 20:38:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
It would appear that on THIS issue, Adams is still anti-Trump.

It would further appear that Lynn doesn't get this, but of course he has
me plonked so I can only point this out to folks who can point it out to
him.
--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger.
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!
Scott Lurndal
2020-05-29 22:05:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
It would appear that on THIS issue, Adams is still anti-Trump.
Getting ones science from a cartoonist seems pretty foolish to me.
Dorothy J Heydt
2020-05-29 22:56:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
It would appear that on THIS issue, Adams is still anti-Trump.
Getting ones science from a cartoonist seems pretty foolish to me.
Depends on the cartoonist. Remember S. Harris?

And there's Doc Rat, a GP in a small Australian town, who just
got finished doing emergency work in wildfire country, and now is
dealing with coronavirus.

The sequence begins here:

https://www.docrat.com.au/comic/so-now-its-back-to-the-future/
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
Lynn McGuire
2020-05-30 01:18:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
It would appear that on THIS issue, Adams is still anti-Trump.
Getting ones science from a cartoonist seems pretty foolish to me.
Depends on the cartoonist. Remember S. Harris?
And there's Doc Rat, a GP in a small Australian town, who just
got finished doing emergency work in wildfire country, and now is
dealing with coronavirus.
https://www.docrat.com.au/comic/so-now-its-back-to-the-future/
That was hilarious. Especially the former amputee clinic.

Lynn
Dorothy J Heydt
2020-05-30 04:01:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Scott Lurndal
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
   https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Scott Lurndal
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
It would appear that on THIS issue, Adams is still anti-Trump.
Getting ones science from a cartoonist seems pretty foolish to me.
Depends on the cartoonist. Remember S. Harris?
And there's Doc Rat, a GP in a small Australian town, who just
got finished doing emergency work in wildfire country, and now is
dealing with coronavirus.
https://www.docrat.com.au/comic/so-now-its-back-to-the-future/
That was hilarious. Especially the former amputee clinic.
The strip's been running for years. The artist is an Australian
GP (don't know if small-town or not) who uses a pseudonym so none
of his real patients worry about being tuckerized.
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
J. Clarke
2020-05-29 20:46:36 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 29 May 2020 13:51:41 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
New York has been conducting research for a while. IIRC they found as
high as 25 percent in some localities and that the infection rate
among health care workers was half that of the general public in the
areas with the highest infection rate.

There isn't any substantiation for a 90 percent figure.
Lynn McGuire
2020-05-29 21:51:52 UTC
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 13:51:41 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
New York has been conducting research for a while. IIRC they found as
high as 25 percent in some localities and that the infection rate
among health care workers was half that of the general public in the
areas with the highest infection rate.
There isn't any substantiation for a 90 percent figure.
"Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for
COVID-19. None of them had symptoms."

https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5

"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."

That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.

This is not the only meat packing plant where this occurred. Something
about the cold working conditions maybe ?

Lynn
J. Clarke
2020-05-29 21:59:41 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 29 May 2020 16:51:52 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 13:51:41 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
New York has been conducting research for a while. IIRC they found as
high as 25 percent in some localities and that the infection rate
among health care workers was half that of the general public in the
areas with the highest infection rate.
There isn't any substantiation for a 90 percent figure.
"Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for
COVID-19. None of them had symptoms."
https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
So 13% were infected. That's a long way from 90 percent.
Post by Lynn McGuire
This is not the only meat packing plant where this occurred. Something
about the cold working conditions maybe ?
Lynn
Lynn McGuire
2020-05-29 22:03:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 16:51:52 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 13:51:41 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
New York has been conducting research for a while. IIRC they found as
high as 25 percent in some localities and that the infection rate
among health care workers was half that of the general public in the
areas with the highest infection rate.
There isn't any substantiation for a 90 percent figure.
"Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for
COVID-19. None of them had symptoms."
https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
So 13% were infected. That's a long way from 90 percent.
Post by Lynn McGuire
This is not the only meat packing plant where this occurred. Something
about the cold working conditions maybe ?
Lynn
13% of the total population tested were infected.

100% of the infected population were asymptomatic.

We have no idea how much of the population in the USA has been infected
due to the high asymptomatic amount of the disease. The CDC says that
35% of the infected are asymptomatic. They have no idea, it could be
50% or 90% also.

Lynn
J. Clarke
2020-05-29 22:59:56 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 29 May 2020 17:03:58 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 16:51:52 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 13:51:41 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
New York has been conducting research for a while. IIRC they found as
high as 25 percent in some localities and that the infection rate
among health care workers was half that of the general public in the
areas with the highest infection rate.
There isn't any substantiation for a 90 percent figure.
"Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for
COVID-19. None of them had symptoms."
https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
So 13% were infected. That's a long way from 90 percent.
Post by Lynn McGuire
This is not the only meat packing plant where this occurred. Something
about the cold working conditions maybe ?
Lynn
13% of the total population tested were infected.
100% of the infected population were asymptomatic.
We have no idea how much of the population in the USA has been infected
due to the high asymptomatic amount of the disease. The CDC says that
35% of the infected are asymptomatic. They have no idea, it could be
50% or 90% also
Oh, I see your point, some percentage of the less than 25 percent who
are infected are asymptomatic. So what?
h***@gmail.com
2020-05-30 06:06:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by J. Clarke
On Fri, 29 May 2020 13:51:41 -0500, Lynn McGuire
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
New York has been conducting research for a while. IIRC they found as
high as 25 percent in some localities and that the infection rate
among health care workers was half that of the general public in the
areas with the highest infection rate.
There isn't any substantiation for a 90 percent figure.
"Nearly 400 employees at a Missouri pork plant tested positive for
COVID-19. None of them had symptoms."
https://www.businessinsider.com/hundreds-food-plant-workers-tested-positive-for-covid-19-asymptomatic-2020-5
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
There's a difference between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic
Until there's follow up in a couple of weeks to see what's happened we won't know which they are
(There's also the chance that they've had mild symptoms in the past or now)

One of the studies used to push the really huge proportion are asymptomatic ignored the fact that 27 of the 50 people who tested positive had lost their sense of smell
Post by Lynn McGuire
This is not the only meat packing plant where this occurred. Something
about the cold working conditions maybe ?
Quadibloc
2020-06-02 10:01:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
Of course, tests for viral infections sometimes give false positives. So another
possibility is that the test gives false positives 13% of the time, and _none_
of the people tested were infected, so no wonder they were asymptomatic.

John Savard
Lynn McGuire
2020-06-04 18:35:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Quadibloc
Post by Lynn McGuire
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
Of course, tests for viral infections sometimes give false positives. So another
possibility is that the test gives false positives 13% of the time, and _none_
of the people tested were infected, so no wonder they were asymptomatic.
John Savard
Wow, you really are delusional.

Lynn
Robert Carnegie
2020-06-04 22:06:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Quadibloc
Post by Lynn McGuire
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
Of course, tests for viral infections sometimes give false positives. So another
possibility is that the test gives false positives 13% of the time,
That isn't the case.
Post by Quadibloc
and _none_
of the people tested were infected, so no wonder they were asymptomatic.
h***@gmail.com
2020-06-05 04:16:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by Quadibloc
Post by Lynn McGuire
"All employees at Triumph Foods, a meat-processing plant in St. Joseph,
Missouri, were offered COVID-19 testing last week. As of Sunday, 373
employees had tested positive, but none showed symptoms."
That is 100% of the people tested positive out of 2,800+ employees were
asymptomatic.
Of course, tests for viral infections sometimes give false positives. So another
possibility is that the test gives false positives 13% of the time,
That isn't the case.
There have been some very shonky test kits produced, 13% false positive wouldn't be the worst performed one..

But asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic are also concerns
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by Quadibloc
and _none_
of the people tested were infected, so no wonder they were asymptomatic.
Mike Van Pelt
2020-05-29 23:14:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
Wow... When *Catbert* is the voice of human
decency in the conversation....
--
Mike Van Pelt | "I don't advise it unless you're nuts."
mvp at calweb.com | -- Ray Wilkinson, after riding out Hurricane
KE6BVH | Ike on Surfside Beach in Galveston
m***@sky.com
2020-05-30 04:05:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
FWIW the UK is estimating 7% of its population, based on antibody tests that should be showing resistance to current or previous infection - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593. I would be surprised if there was 5X more infection per population in the US without seeing even more extraordinary death rates. Of course rates are probably higher in both capitals.
Dimensional Traveler
2020-05-30 05:48:20 UTC
Permalink
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
FWIW the UK is estimating 7% of its population, based on antibody tests that should be showing resistance to current or previous infection - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593. I would be surprised if there was 5X more infection per population in the US without seeing even more extraordinary death rates. Of course rates are probably higher in both capitals.
You're doing it wrong. You're using facts and drawing logical
conclusions instead of cherry-picking numbers that you can spin to
support what's in your own personal financial interest without
consideration of the harm to others. Until you learn how to do that
Lynn will reject your points as part of the world-wide anti-capitalism
fake news conspiracy.
--
<to be filled in at a later date>
Lynn McGuire
2020-06-01 19:20:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
FWIW the UK is estimating 7% of its population, based on antibody tests that should be showing resistance to current or previous infection - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593. I would be surprised if there was 5X more infection per population in the US without seeing even more extraordinary death rates. Of course rates are probably higher in both capitals.
Sigh. The CDC is estimating that 35% of the infected are asymptomatic.
They estimate that 5% of the USA population have had SARS-COV-2.

I have no idea how you get an overall infection rate out of the previous
statement.

Lynn
h***@gmail.com
2020-06-02 04:34:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
FWIW the UK is estimating 7% of its population, based on antibody tests that should be showing resistance to current or previous infection - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593. I would be surprised if there was 5X more infection per population in the US without seeing even more extraordinary death rates. Of course rates are probably higher in both capitals.
Sigh. The CDC is estimating that 35% of the infected are asymptomatic.
They estimate that 5% of the USA population have had SARS-COV-2.
0.26% death rate for the infected and 106,925 deaths gives 41,125,000 total infections total.
Confirmed cases are 1,859,323 so for the CDC fatality rate to hold up you'd need 22 times as many people not diagnosed as have been tested and found to have it.
It also would mean that New York State would need about 60% of the population to have had it (almost 30,000 deaths) which is way higher than what the antibody tests were suggesting, at the 20th of May NYC had a bit under 20% on antibody testing
It's had 16410 deaths according to 1 search, another search was >20,000 on 20-5, if we use the lower figure then with a population 8.4 million
that'd be 6.3 million which is 75% of the population, so almost 4 times what the antibody tests showed under 2 weeks ago...

The CDC figure looks way too low
Post by Lynn McGuire
I have no idea how you get an overall infection rate out of the previous
statement.
m***@sky.com
2020-06-02 18:36:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by Lynn McGuire
Dilbert: CEO does math
https://dilbert.com/strip/2020-05-29
The latest CDC calculation is 0.26%.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/why-does-the-cdc-think-the-covid-19-fatality-rate-is-so-low-and-why-wont-it-tell-anyone/
And nobody knows what the asymptomatic infection rate is. The CDC is
estimating 35%. I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%.
Lynn
FWIW the UK is estimating 7% of its population, based on antibody tests that should be showing resistance to current or previous infection - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52837593. I would be surprised if there was 5X more infection per population in the US without seeing even more extraordinary death rates. Of course rates are probably higher in both capitals.
Sigh. The CDC is estimating that 35% of the infected are asymptomatic.
They estimate that 5% of the USA population have had SARS-COV-2.
I have no idea how you get an overall infection rate out of the previous
statement.
Lynn
I misunderstood you - sorry. I thought that by asymptomatic infection rate you meant asymptomatic infected percentage in the population, not the asymptomatic percentage of those infected. In fact (unless I am in error again) the figures I quoted suggest quite a large proportion of all cases are asymptomatic. The UK population is > 63E6, so at a 7% ever infected rate we should have a total case count (ever) of about 4.4E6 but last time I looked we had a total confirmed case count of under 300E3 (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public), so there is a big gap of people who are either asymptomatic or think they have something so minor it's not worth going to the NHS about (apparently NHS visits are way down in general, possibly because people are scared of catching Covid-19). The NHS is of course free but in practice this means it is rationed by queue - pre Covid people could wait for hours in A&E for painful but not life threatening injuries to be dealt with.
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