Let me try to start with a real world example of
the Butterfly Effect, or an event 'going viral'.
The Perfect Rumor, but first...
Generally, complex systems are analyzed using
massive computer simulations, so I have to find
another way to observe real world complexity.
Where do I find thousands of large scale real world
examples of complex adaptive systems, where the data
is provided free and in real time?
Lot to ask?
It's called the stock market. Best place
to observe complexity in action as it's
essentially some 10,000 complex adaptive systems
running every day with reams of real time
and even better free data. Not to mention
the highly useful stock screeners where
you can screen for any values, even complex
The stock market is a system involving highly
complex parts, people, which is far better
than parts comprised of simple things such as
sand or water molecules etc.
The more complex the system, the larger the scale,
the better for observing reliable emergent system
properties, such as going viral.
It doesn't get any larger or more complex than
the stock market.
Back to the Perfect Rumor example.
An utterly reliable source, let's say the NY Times, announces
some big new product has a 'problem'.
This 'certainty' represents the static attractor or order.
However the details of the 'problem' are not enough
for even an expert to determine if the problem is
fatal or fixable. You just don't know.
This 'uncertainty' represents the chaotic attractor or disorder
But due to the reliable source you do know that it
..has a problem, just have no idea how big.
What do you do with that stock?
I have observed many times that what happens
is the certainty of a problem, balanced with
the uncertainty of it's scale creates the same
response almost...every single time.
The traders assumes the worst-case scenario
and panic-selling sets in.
Or for a good-news rumor panic-buying sets in.
The volatility explodes, the viral effect shows up
and sends the stock behavior wildly swinging
like someone pulled a spring tight and then
let it go.
All kinds of emergent behavior follows, and emergent
behavior is...simple behavior, btw, an important
fact to understand.
Here's a famous example. Gamestop.
Social media site r/WallStreetBets started talking about
a potential short squeeze of historical proportions
are possible, and this was the result...
Emergent behavior. Like a bouncing spring, like a
flock of birds. Notice the volume swings are easy to see
and sudden, showing the buy and sell points clearly.
Providing a template for future examples where
the buy point would be after the first fall
at around $50 in late February. It's easy
to screen for such massive changes of volume
Remember that a complex system produces simple emergent behavior.
Like a vortex is more predictable than a cloud, or
collective intelligence provides the better answer
than a single mind, or market forces provide
more stability and predictability.
Btw complexity is a synonym for uncertainty
in this science. The more complex the more
The emergent stock behavior is simple since
the huge increase in volatility due to sudden
infusion of complexity/uncertainty quickly forces
the stock to bounce off or show it's local
bottom and top.
The buy and sell points are suddenly exposed
and become predictable once the static and chaotic
attractors are critically interacting.
The abstract form of a complex adaptive system:
Static Attractor: That which increases...order such as:
A solid, rule of law, gravity, genetics or facts.
Chaotic Attractor: That which increases...disorder such as"
A gas, freedom, cosmic expansion, selection or imagination.
A complex system is when it's static and chaotic attractors
are critically interacting, at the transition or tipping point
between each other. As in a cloud, a market or political system.
Here is the solution.
In trading I've learned it's not enough for
this generic abstract relationship to exist for the
viral behavior to emerge.
They two attractors have to be at...*simultaneous maximums*...
for the system at hand. The static and chaotic
attractors must also each be complex systems
in their own right, not just a part, and represent
system specific maximum or ultimate examples of each.
For instance with the Perfect Rumor it can't
just be a reliable source, or a pedestrian
corporation or problem, but the best source
of all, a huge or important product.
Combined with details of the problem that
just utterly falls short of defining if
fixable or fatal?
Both wrapped up on a single event, or press
release in this example.
The first and greatest of all viral events
to date has what properties?
Death of Christ!
We know he existed, but was he a mortal or divine?
Was he a freedom fighter or terrorist?
Was he a philosopher or a prophet?
For this example...
Death represents the ultimate certainty.
Divinity, philosophy and love represents the
ultimate unknowns or uncertainties.
The static and chaotic attractors, in one event
experienced globally, are at simultaneous maximums.
A complex system, where complexity is maximized
at all levels.
Let me put put up or shut up.
Just...now Googled the most watched video ever
on Utube. Turns out to be a children's cartoon
"On February 3, 2021, "Baby Shark Dance" had received
more views than the Earth's entire human population,
according to various estimates, becoming the first
YouTube video to do so"
But for this video to go...so viral, to display
such grand emergent properties I knew the
logical structure I just described MUST BE
present before I even watched it.
It HAS to be for the effect to be so massive.
Remember the opposing attractors must
represent maximum possibilities.
The Baby Shark Dance, what are the opposing
attractors, and are they at maximum?
The Baby Shark Dance, the original version
The Baby Shark Dance
Origins and history
Different versions of the song have the sharks hunting fish,
eating a sailor, or killing people who then go to heaven.
While the English version simply lists the members of the
hark family, the Korean version says Mommy Shark is "pretty",
Daddy Shark is "strong", Grandma Shark is "kind", and
Grandpa Shark is "cool". In January 2018, the South Korean
newspaper Kyunghyang Shinmun published a front-page editorial
condemning these lyrics as sexist.
Children are, of course, the ultimate example of purity
Questions of life, death and Heaven plus freckled
human nature represent just the opposite, the
greatest unknowns or uncertainties.
Combining children and the ultimate questions of meaning?
Or Heaven and Hell in one package or event, in a way
no one can tell which opposite dominates.
Like that stupid children's video, a good rumor
or even the death of Christ.
Now you know how to design the ultimate viral effect.
Or how to wield the Power of Nature with your fingertips
...as if a God.
If that stupid cartoon can stumble into the solution
why shouldn't we be able to as well?
But perhaps using the idea for a more consequential
I'd Love To Change The World - Ten Years After ( lyrics )
"I'd love to change the world
But I don't know what to do
So I'll leave it up to you"
original video 3,400,000 views
Thanks for reading.