narkive is for sale. Interested? (dismiss)
Discussion:
Long Term COVID-19 Policy
(too old to reply)
p***@hotmail.com
2020-05-02 06:55:59 UTC
Permalink
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
used by various countries:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704

Some excerpts:

Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?

Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.

That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.

JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?

Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.

To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.

Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
and sustainability:

"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."

Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.

In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.

Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.

Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.

Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.

Doctor Aylward said in the interview:

"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."

Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.

I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.

Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Charles Packer
2020-05-02 10:15:12 UTC
Permalink
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an interview with
World Health Organization assistant director general Dr. Bruce Aylward.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
The most interesting question in that interview was the last one,
which you didn't excerpt:
"Have you seen anything like this outbreak before?
As soon as you [compare the disease to others],
you are dead. This is a new disease..."

Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax? This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box. Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?

http://cpacker.org
Jaimie Vandenbergh
2020-05-02 11:07:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an interview with
World Health Organization assistant director general Dr. Bruce Aylward.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
The most interesting question in that interview was the last one,
"Have you seen anything like this outbreak before?
As soon as you [compare the disease to others],
you are dead. This is a new disease..."
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax? This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box. Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
http://angryflower.com/1317.html

Cheers - Jaimie
--
I like nonsense. It wakes up the brain cells. -- Dr. Seuss
h***@gmail.com
2020-05-02 13:52:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an interview with
World Health Organization assistant director general Dr. Bruce Aylward.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
The most interesting question in that interview was the last one,
"Have you seen anything like this outbreak before?
As soon as you [compare the disease to others],
you are dead. This is a new disease..."
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
No
Post by Charles Packer
This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box.
Fuck off
Post by Charles Packer
Before I explain why it's a reasonable question,
It's not
Post by Charles Packer
(and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
http://cpacker.org
Fuck off
Dorothy J Heydt
2020-05-02 16:10:24 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an interview with
World Health Organization assistant director general Dr. Bruce Aylward.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
The most interesting question in that interview was the last one,
"Have you seen anything like this outbreak before?
As soon as you [compare the disease to others],
you are dead. This is a new disease..."
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
No
Well, no, of course not. On this planet, whereon you can't get
everybody to agree on anything ... indeed, where most of the
time you can't get *anybody* to agree on anything, you could not
get enough hoaxters to agree on what hoax they want to
perpetrate.

Although

"If you assume a big enough conspiracy, you can explain anything,
including the universe."
--- Fritz Leiber, _The Big Time_
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
Joy Beeson
2020-05-11 02:42:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
--
Joy Beeson
joy beeson at comcast dot net
h***@gmail.com
2020-05-11 03:40:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by Joy Beeson
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
When it's a conspiracy theory that a disease that has killed over 280,000 people he doesn't deserve a thoughtful response
Titus G
2020-05-11 04:15:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by Joy Beeson
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
Have you not heard or read that rebuttal before? You've chopped all the
context, Joy, but I suspect it was an instinctual reaction to nonsense
taking seconds of thought. But your reply took nine days thought and
about 6 times more letters to type. :-)
Kevrob
2020-05-13 14:35:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Titus G
Post by Joy Beeson
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
Have you not heard or read that rebuttal before? You've chopped all the
context, Joy, but I suspect it was an instinctual reaction to nonsense
taking seconds of thought. But your reply took nine days thought and
about 6 times more letters to type. :-)
Joy did recently tell us she was trying to catch up.

Sometimes FOAD is the second best reply, silence
being better.

Kevin R
Alan Baker
2020-05-12 01:57:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by Joy Beeson
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
It was longer than that...

...and appropriate to the post to which it was a reply.
Steve Coltrin
2020-05-19 19:45:16 UTC
Permalink
begin fnord
Post by Joy Beeson
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
Lord Haw-Haw doesn't deserve thoughtful and well-reasoned.
--
Steve Coltrin ***@omcl.org Google Groups killfiled here
"A group known as the League of Human Dignity helped arrange for Deuel
to be driven to a local livestock scale, where he could be weighed."
- Associated Press
m***@sky.com
2020-05-20 04:11:07 UTC
Permalink
Post by Steve Coltrin
begin fnord
Post by Joy Beeson
Post by h***@gmail.com
Fuck off
Oh, what a thoughtful and well-reasoned rebuttal!
Lord Haw-Haw doesn't deserve thoughtful and well-reasoned.
--
"A group known as the League of Human Dignity helped arrange for Deuel
to be driven to a local livestock scale, where he could be weighed."
- Associated Press
You are talking to more than just your original correspondent, who you were probably never going to persuade of anything anyway. Thoughtful and well-reasoned are for the rest of us, who you might persuade (or not)
Thomas Koenig
2020-05-02 14:11:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
Post by Charles Packer
Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
Why would you believe a random Usenet article if you don't believe
all the rest of the info that's out there on Covid-19?
Wolffan
2020-05-02 14:56:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
Post by Charles Packer
Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
Why would you believe a random Usenet article if you don't believe
all the rest of the info that's out there on Covid-19?
he’s an idiot.
Christian Weisgerber
2020-05-02 14:54:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
People claim COVID-19 originated in China, but does China actually
exist? I have never been there, so I think we need to keep an open
mind about the possibility that the existence of China might be a
hoax. Taiwan I have been to, but I was told in no uncertain words
that it is not China.

I'm ambivalent about Australia's existence. I mean, I've been
there, but it looked a lot like Canada, pictures of the queen on
the money and all, except that the cars were on the wrong side of
the road and people had a weird accent. It could be that Australia
is just a remote Canadian province. I'm told they talk funny in
Newfoundland, too. The claim that Australia is on the other side
of the world is a transparent hoax, since everybody would fall off
the ground if that were true.

I tellya, there's a lot they ain't tellin' us!
--
Christian "naddy" Weisgerber ***@mips.inka.de
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-02 17:53:48 UTC
Permalink
Post by Christian Weisgerber
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
People claim COVID-19 originated in China, but does China actually
exist? I have never been there, so I think we need to keep an open
mind about the possibility that the existence of China might be a
hoax. Taiwan I have been to, but I was told in no uncertain words
that it is not China.
"Does China Exist?" (Nature, 1967): <https://rdcu.be/b3U9l> (untesteed)

"Does China Exist?" (BBC, 1997): <https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0122816/>
Titus G
2020-05-03 04:23:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Christian Weisgerber
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
People claim COVID-19 originated in China, but does China actually
exist? I have never been there, so I think we need to keep an open
mind about the possibility that the existence of China might be a
hoax. Taiwan I have been to, but I was told in no uncertain words
that it is not China.
I'm ambivalent about Australia's existence. I mean, I've been
there, but it looked a lot like Canada, pictures of the queen on
the money and all, except that the cars were on the wrong side of
the road and people had a weird accent. It could be that Australia
is just a remote Canadian province. I'm told they talk funny in
Newfoundland, too. The claim that Australia is on the other side
of the world is a transparent hoax, since everybody would fall off
the ground if that were true.
I tellya, there's a lot they ain't tellin' us!
Brilliant. That has cheered me up for today.
I have also been to Australia from NZ many times so share your concerns
but every time I was there they were driving on the correct side of the
road so if the construct changes for individuals, then, yes, it probably
doesn't exist.
Dorothy J Heydt
2020-05-02 16:12:17 UTC
Permalink
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
I had to google that. Fortunately, Google came through.

https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/city-doesn-t-exist-and-when-angela-merkel-made-joke-story-bielefeld-2692
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
m***@sky.com
2020-05-02 16:43:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
I had to google that. Fortunately, Google came through.
https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/city-doesn-t-exist-and-when-angela-merkel-made-joke-story-bielefeld-2692
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
As an example of a very useful place that does not exist, I give you the port of Micklefirth in the country of Jussland - there is a complete set of electronic nautical charts and appendages for this place - because it is used to test systems for displaying such things. A web search finds e.g. https://iho.int/uploads/user/pubs/standards/s-64/S-64_Ed_3.0.2_EN.pdf
Kevrob
2020-05-02 17:02:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
I had to google that. Fortunately, Google came through.
https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/city-doesn-t-exist-and-when-angela-merkel-made-joke-story-bielefeld-2692
Is it Oakland's sister city? :)

Kevin R
danny burstein
2020-05-02 17:46:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Kevrob
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
I had to google that. Fortunately, Google came through.
https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/city-doesn-t-exist-and-when-angela-merkel-made-joke-story-bielefeld-2692
Is it Oakland's sister city? :)
Let's not forget that non existant planet that a human sent
a Berserker to destroy in Fred Saberhagen's, umm, some story
or another...
--
_____________________________________________________
Knowledge may be power, but communications is the key
***@panix.com
[to foil spammers, my address has been double rot-13 encoded]
David Goldfarb
2020-05-03 07:19:12 UTC
Permalink
Post by danny burstein
Let's not forget that non existant planet that a human sent
a Berserker to destroy in Fred Saberhagen's, umm, some story
or another...
"The Annihilation of Angkor Apeiron". I knew that off the top
of my head: which collection it was in, I'd need to look up.
--
David Goldfarb |"I'm in the middle of fifteen things,
***@gmail.com | all of them annoying."
***@ocf.berkeley.edu | -- Babylon 5, "Midnight on the Firing Line"
Thomas Koenig
2020-05-02 17:52:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Dorothy J Heydt
Post by Thomas Koenig
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
Does Bielefeld actually exist?
I had to google that. Fortunately, Google came through.
https://www.citymetric.com/fabric/city-doesn-t-exist-and-when-angela-merkel-made-joke-story-bielefeld-2692
Don't let THEM fool you - this is the cover story that THEY want
you to believe.

I read something similar about an alleged state in the US called
"North Dakota" - is anybody from there, or knows somebody who is
from there, or has been there?
Wolffan
2020-05-02 14:55:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an interview with
World Health Organization assistant director general Dr. Bruce Aylward.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
The most interesting question in that interview was the last one,
"Have you seen anything like this outbreak before?
As soon as you [compare the disease to others],
you are dead. This is a new disease..."
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax?
no
Post by Charles Packer
This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box. Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question,
it’s no such thing
Post by Charles Packer
(and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease
yes
Post by Charles Packer
-- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
yes

You’re an idiot.
Post by Charles Packer
http://cpacker.org
Lawrence Watt-Evans
2020-05-02 15:18:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax? This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box. Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
Yes, I know people who have had it. None of them have died of it yet,
but I do have friends who have lost family.

Fuck off and die.
--
My webpage is at http://www.watt-evans.com
My latest novel is Stone Unturned: A Legend of Ethshar.
See http://www.ethshar.com/StoneUnturned.shtml
Carl Fink
2020-05-02 16:38:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lawrence Watt-Evans
Post by Charles Packer
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax? This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box. Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
Yes, I know people who have had it. None of them have died of it yet,
but I do have friends who have lost family.
Fuck off and die.
Remember "Don't Feed the Energy Creature"?

Me, too, but I chose not to feed ....
--
Carl Fink ***@finknetwork.com
https://reasonablyliterate.com https://nitpicking.com
If you want to make a point, somebody will take the point and stab you with it.
-Kenne Estes
Peter Trei
2020-05-03 04:44:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an interview with
World Health Organization assistant director general Dr. Bruce Aylward.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
The most interesting question in that interview was the last one,
"Have you seen anything like this outbreak before?
As soon as you [compare the disease to others],
you are dead. This is a new disease..."
Is Covid-19 an elaborate hoax? This is a question that one
wouldn't dare pose except to an audience like this one that's
used to thinking outside the box. Before I explain why it's a
reasonable question, (and relate it to specific sf works) can
anybody falsify the hypothesis with testimony that they have
first-hand experience with the disease -- either via symptoms
or testing -- (degree 0 separation) or know someone personally
who has (degree 1 separation)?
http://cpacker.org
I have a cousin who has died, 10 days after a positive test. My mother is in a memory care
facility where. 12: tenants have already died, and I worry.

Pt
m***@sky.com
2020-05-02 15:51:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
p***@hotmail.com
2020-05-03 16:48:21 UTC
Permalink
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (Доверяй, но проверяй).

Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.

Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.

Effective treatments and vaccinations will be developed in their times,
but active testing and tracing would appear to be a strategy whereby
a society can function productively in the interim.

Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-03 18:06:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (Доверяй, но проверяй).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
I think it's how everyone dealt with SARS. I haven't read to check in
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome>

But see also from 1854: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow#Cholera>

"His studies of the pattern of the disease were convincing enough
to persuade the local council to disable the well pump by removing
its handle" although (1) he said later that the outbreak may have
been over anyway, (2) a lot of the tracking was done later than
that, and (3) this wasn't person-to-person transmission (or mainly
wasn't; if it was, people were drinking the same water anyway).

Also, the pump handle was restored soon afterwards, and only later
still was it discovered that the well was dug next to a sewage pit.
Perhaps disused, I'm not sure.

This is in the West End of London.
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
Effective treatments and vaccinations will be developed in their times,
but active testing and tracing would appear to be a strategy whereby
a society can function productively in the interim.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
J. Clarke
2020-05-03 18:55:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Effective treatments and vaccinations will be developed in their times,
but active testing and tracing would appear to be a strategy whereby
a society can function productively in the interim.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
p***@hotmail.com
2020-05-04 01:23:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.

The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials has made this
overview of the task:

https://www.astho.org/COVID-19/A-National-Approach-for-Contact-Tracing/

The CDC has this outline of the contact tracing process:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/principles-contact-tracing.html

Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
J. Clarke
2020-05-04 02:04:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials has made this
https://www.astho.org/COVID-19/A-National-Approach-for-Contact-Tracing/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/principles-contact-tracing.html
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Peter Trei
2020-05-04 03:16:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.

To see it done wrong google Israeli cellphone contact tracing.

Pt

Pt
J. Clarke
2020-05-04 03:47:39 UTC
Permalink
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
Which might work if everybody had a smartphone. While they are very
popular that is not a valid assumption.
Post by Peter Trei
To see it done wrong google Israeli cellphone contact tracing.
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-04 10:46:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
Which might work if everybody had a smartphone. While they are very
popular that is not a valid assumption.
The benefit of Bluetooth phone contact logging does depend on how many
people have compatible devices and join the contact logging programme.
But incomplete participation can be valid (but ideally a majority).
Have an article, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52294896>

It's possible for basic devices to be issued cheap or free
("Obamaphone"). This could be with actual phone function
disabled if you want to be mean.
J. Clarke
2020-05-04 23:08:05 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 4 May 2020 03:46:29 -0700 (PDT), Robert Carnegie
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
Which might work if everybody had a smartphone. While they are very
popular that is not a valid assumption.
The benefit of Bluetooth phone contact logging does depend on how many
people have compatible devices and join the contact logging programme.
But incomplete participation can be valid (but ideally a majority).
Have an article, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52294896>
It's possible for basic devices to be issued cheap or free
("Obamaphone"). This could be with actual phone function
disabled if you want to be mean.
And when someone tosses this nonphone tracker into the nearest trash,
then what?
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-05 08:25:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 4 May 2020 03:46:29 -0700 (PDT), Robert Carnegie
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
Which might work if everybody had a smartphone. While they are very
popular that is not a valid assumption.
The benefit of Bluetooth phone contact logging does depend on how many
people have compatible devices and join the contact logging programme.
But incomplete participation can be valid (but ideally a majority).
Have an article, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52294896>
It's possible for basic devices to be issued cheap or free
("Obamaphone"). This could be with actual phone function
disabled if you want to be mean.
And when someone tosses this nonphone tracker into the nearest trash,
then what?
Then you arrest the registered owner, obviously. ;-)
J. Clarke
2020-05-05 20:55:07 UTC
Permalink
On Tue, 5 May 2020 01:25:32 -0700 (PDT), Robert Carnegie
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 4 May 2020 03:46:29 -0700 (PDT), Robert Carnegie
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
Which might work if everybody had a smartphone. While they are very
popular that is not a valid assumption.
The benefit of Bluetooth phone contact logging does depend on how many
people have compatible devices and join the contact logging programme.
But incomplete participation can be valid (but ideally a majority).
Have an article, <https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52294896>
It's possible for basic devices to be issued cheap or free
("Obamaphone"). This could be with actual phone function
disabled if you want to be mean.
And when someone tosses this nonphone tracker into the nearest trash,
then what?
Then you arrest the registered owner, obviously. ;-)
You may be fine with that. A lot of people aren't.
Jaimie Vandenbergh
2020-05-04 11:46:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
The Apple/Google phone firmware level system is indeed done properly, it's
very cleverly avoiding privacy issues.
Post by Peter Trei
To see it done wrong google Israeli cellphone contact tracing.
Or the Brit one. Which is going to be written by the company found guilty of
falsifying information over Brexit. So that'll get a lot of uptake...

Cheers - Jaimie
--
Sent from my VAX 11/780
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-04 15:13:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jaimie Vandenbergh
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
The Apple/Google phone firmware level system is indeed done properly, it's
very cleverly avoiding privacy issues.
Is that available? I thought that one or both of the
operating systems was going to have to be updated to allow
it. Good luck with that...... The change was to be
required to allow Bluetooth activity to run without being
controlled by a foreground program. My impression was
that new Apple/Google software in the OS itself would
be allowed to run as an exception, they'd do it and
hand the result to the app on the phone.

<https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52415593>
may represent a confused description of it. I think
they may be saying that app developers have been given
a "beta" preview version of the new functions before
general release takes place. I haven't had a recent
OS update, but I am using an iPhone 6 which doesn't
go past iOS 12 - but which has had iOS 12 updates
after iOS 13 came out, so it's semi-officially
supported. Until it isn't. I tried and failed to
find out about that.

"The tech giants now intend to release a software
building block to developers on Tuesday [April 28th - ?],
allowing them to build compatible apps. A fortnight ago,
the firms said it would take until mid-May."

It still may?
Jaimie Vandenbergh
2020-05-04 15:49:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by Jaimie Vandenbergh
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
The Apple/Google phone firmware level system is indeed done properly, it's
very cleverly avoiding privacy issues.
Is that available? I thought that one or both of the
operating systems was going to have to be updated to allow
it. Good luck with that...... The change was to be
required to allow Bluetooth activity to run without being
controlled by a foreground program. My impression was
that new Apple/Google software in the OS itself would
be allowed to run as an exception, they'd do it and
hand the result to the app on the phone.
Yep, exactly. Apps have to be written to use the new APIs. And as usual,
there's the problem of Android updates... or the significant lack thereof.
Post by Robert Carnegie
general release takes place. I haven't had a recent
OS update, but I am using an iPhone 6 which doesn't
go past iOS 12 - but which has had iOS 12 updates
after iOS 13 came out, so it's semi-officially
supported. Until it isn't. I tried and failed to
find out about that.
It's out in iOS 13.5, no info on back porting that I can see.
Post by Robert Carnegie
"The tech giants now intend to release a software
building block to developers on Tuesday [April 28th - ?],
allowing them to build compatible apps. A fortnight ago,
the firms said it would take until mid-May."
It still may?
If we're lucky.

Cheers - Jaimie
--
The weirder you're going to behave, the more normal you should look. It
works
in reverse, too. When I see a kid with three or four rings in his nose, I
know
there is absolutely nothing extraordinary about that person. -- P J
O'Rourke
Paul S Person
2020-05-04 16:12:21 UTC
Permalink
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
So how many are on a subway car and how do you identify them? GPS
doesn't work on a subway.
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
I seem to recall an article on such an app, used in India, which had a
number of drawbacks, including reducing battery life because /it
turned everything on/ and sucked up all the power possible.

Still, the idea of treating smartphones like the tags used with pets
is an interesting one.
Post by Peter Trei
To see it done wrong google Israeli cellphone contact tracing.
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."
Lawrence Watt-Evans
2020-05-05 04:43:01 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 04 May 2020 09:12:21 -0700, Paul S Person
Post by J. Clarke
On Sun, 3 May 2020 20:16:29 -0700 (PDT), Peter Trei
Post by Peter Trei
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking app on their smart phone.
Or TELL them to. The Chinese did that.
Post by J. Clarke
Post by Peter Trei
Using Bluetooth this exchanges anonymized identifiers with other phones carrying the same app.
A properly designed system can preserve anonymity, but allow people to know they were in
contact with someone who had the disease.
I seem to recall an article on such an app, used in India, which had a
number of drawbacks, including reducing battery life because /it
turned everything on/ and sucked up all the power possible.
Still, the idea of treating smartphones like the tags used with pets
is an interesting one.
My son lives in China. The Chinese have been using a tracker
something like Square -- it records every business you've set foot in,
and when. If someone patronizing a business was found to be infected,
everyone else who had been in there within an hour of the infected
person got a red notice on the app ordering them to get tested and go
into quarantine.

This was not optional. There are advantages to dictatorships.
--
My webpage is at http://www.watt-evans.com
My latest novel is Stone Unturned: A Legend of Ethshar.
See http://www.ethshar.com/StoneUnturned.shtml
Titus G
2020-05-04 21:16:10 UTC
Permalink
On 4/05/20 3:16 pm, Peter Trei wrote:
snip
Post by Peter Trei
The best idea at the moment is to ask people to install a tracking
app on their smart phone.
Rules have slightly relaxed here so after four weeks of my delightful
neighbour attending the supermarket on my behalf, I drove the car,
(after having to recharge the battery), for the first time yesterday to
collect some purchases. At the bulk stock food warehouse, they took my
name and phone number using pen and paper after contactless placing the
goods in my car and contactless payment by card.
Primitive, but given the reduced activity and small number of customers,
effective in the meantime. Most other places now open require preorder
and prepayment which will include identity so as long as the contactless
pickup time is recorded, tracking will be automatic. However, such
places as fast food outlets with drive throughs could be an issue.
Paul S Person
2020-05-04 16:09:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
Six per contact.

That's quite a fan-out!

1 7 43 ...
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials has made this
https://www.astho.org/COVID-19/A-National-Approach-for-Contact-Tracing/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/principles-contact-tracing.html
--
"I begin to envy Petronius."
"I have envied him long since."
p***@hotmail.com
2020-05-05 05:59:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul S Person
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by J. Clarke
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Post by m***@sky.com
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The March 21-27 issue of _New Scientist_ magazine has an
interview with World Health Organization assistant director
general Dr. Bruce Aylward. The subject is the COVID-19 policies
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0262407920305704
Jessica Hamzelou: How did China get to this point?
Dr. Aylward: China did something that most other countries would
not even have tried, and many people thought would have been
impossible. It used fundamental public health approaches – such
as case finding and contact tracing – to stop a respiratory virus.
That seemed almost impossible as a premise because respiratory
viruses transmit so effectively and efficiently – typically the
only way you can stop them is with a vaccine or pharmaceutical
treatment. What China did provides a lesson for infectious
disease epidemiologists.
JH: Does that mean China's extreme lockdowns were the right way to go?
Aylward: Everyone always starts at the wrong end of the China
response. The first thing it did was try to prevent the spread as
much as it could, and make sure people knew about the disease and
how to get tested.
To actually stop the virus, it had to do rapid testing of any
suspect case, immediate isolation of anyone who was a confirmed
or suspected case, and then quarantine the close contacts for
14 days so that they could figure out if any were infected.
Those were the measures that stopped transmission in China,
not the big travel restrictions and lockdowns.
Dr. Aylward emphasized that Chinese policy is based on flexibility
"China decided that it cannot afford to wait for cases to go to
absolute zero – not knowing if they ever will – so it decided to
strengthen its whole system so that it could live with the disease
if it had to. It is building additional capacity to isolate people,
and it is building additional ventilators. It is planning to be
able to manage low-level disease and prevent large outbreaks.
It's a very sensible way to plan."
Others have pointed out that the quickest a vaccine has ever been
developed is for ebola, and that took five years. Also, there has
never been an effective vaccine for any corona virus.
In the United States we are still in the talking stage of fielding
adequate numbers of dedicated contact tracers. Of course, contact
tracing got off to a late start in the United States because of delays
with testing.
Adapting to COVID-19 has already required great productivity in
building masks and ventilators, and very likely more in such things
as modifying and building infrastructure.
Looking toward sustainability, there is a great deal of existing
technology that can be used to control workplace transmission of
air born disease. For example, coal miners and others in physically
demanding jobs often use helmets or complete suits supplied with
filtered air at slight positive pressure. This could be adapted
to other fields. For years, the air-handling systems in hospitals
have been designed to keep pathogens in or out of various rooms;
for patients with contagious diseases, keep them in, for patients
with compromised immune systems, keep them out. This could also
be done in schools, airliners, and trains, to prevent one classroom
or passenger from infecting another.
Operating an educational system is a challenge. In addition to
academic subjects, lower grades teach social behavior and cooperation,
which don't really lend themselves to distance learning.
"But one of the curious things with [covid-19] is that we have not
seen school outbreaks. I talked to my colleagues in South Korea,
in China, in Italy, everywhere – no one has seen school outbreaks.
They have seen situations where a teacher is infected and they have
infected kids, but that is different to the kids all getting each
other infected."
Several western countries have recently reopened schools, and Sweden
never did close elementary schools.
I am interested in any thoughts on this and related issues.
Peter Wezeman
anti-social Darwinist
Trying to learn anything from what the Chinese are saying now is dangerous, because the Chinese have been lying pretty consistently. It is unfortunate that the WHO don't seem to have noticed this.
I would say "trust, but verify", which I have just found is actually
a Russian proverb, "Doveryai, no proveryai" (???????, ?? ????????).
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics. This was the first I read
that contact tracing was not universally valued or used for air born
pathogens. If its use in this case is in fact a Chinese innovation this
has no effect on its present demonstrated value.
Not a panacea of course, but contact tracing provides redundancy to
other control measures a society employs. If an person is infected
despite precautions in the workplace or other venues, contact tracing
can intercept further spread.
The problem with contact tracing for airborn pathogens is the
magnitude of the task. How many people get exposed when one person
walks down the street in New York? And how do you identify them all?
Everybody doesn't have a cell phone you know. And then there's the
matter of the legality of using cell phones to track that many
individuals. In China that's not an issue--the law is not a
constraint on government there. In the US it's a different story. Of
course the newly self-anointed governor-kings might not let the law be
an obstacle if "it keeps people safe".
It is difficult but from what I've read it can be done to a useful degree
even using standard interview methods. According to Dr. Laura Breeher,
medical director of occupational health services at the Mayo Clinic,
typically they are looking for people that have been six feet away or
nearer for ten minutes or longer, or five minutes in a health care setting.
According to Doctor John Schneider, medical director of the Howard Clinic,
as reported in the _Chicago Sun Times_, for each new case of COVID-19 there
are typically 10 direct and indirect contacts, it takes a day for an
investigator to call all of them, and roughly two-thirds will be found
to be infected themselves.
Six per contact.
That's quite a fan-out!
1 7 43 ...
This would only happen if nothing is done to interrupt it. The contact
tracers can call the ten contacts generated by each new COVID-19 case in
one day. This is an average; if a particular case has a greater number
of contacts they can assign more people to it and still finish in a day.
Each person called is requested to self-isolate until they can be tested,
which should be within a day or so.

Right now, California has about 1,500 new cases per day, and they intend
to deploy a total of 10,000 contact tracers for the state, so the numbers
seem to work out.
Post by Paul S Person
Post by p***@hotmail.com
The Association of State and Territorial Health Officials has made this
https://www.astho.org/COVID-19/A-National-Approach-for-Contact-Tracing/
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/principles-contact-tracing.html
o***@gmail.com
2020-05-04 02:16:39 UTC
Permalink
Post by p***@hotmail.com
Until I read this interview I had presumed that contact tracing, which
has been widely discussed in the news on COVID-19, was a standard tool
used as a matter of course in all epidemics.
"contact tracing", in a plague of airborne transmission....is a waste of time, hope, and manpower.

oz, retired public health officer.......glad to be RETIRED.
Charles Packer
2020-05-03 02:15:34 UTC
Permalink
On Fri, 01 May 2020 23:55:59 -0700, peterwezeman wrote:

[& contumely follows]

Wow, what an eruption. Sort of like poking a jellyfish's
nerve net. Conspiracy Theory Immunity Response?

http://cpacker.org
Titus G
2020-05-03 04:23:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
[& contumely follows]
Wow, what an eruption. Sort of like poking a jellyfish's
nerve net. Conspiracy Theory Immunity Response?
I was surprised at the level of the anger you attracted. There is
another poster here called lala land or something similar and your post
reminded me of his stranger than strange OT posts except his are more
plausible and he wouldn't confuse a Conspiracy Theory with an Elaborate
Hoax.
There was a serious reply from a poster who had personal experience
within the bounds you specified which I think would be easily enough to
cause grief; did you consider that?
I can not get my head around the concept of something involving so many
deaths as "an elaborate hoax".
We know what, are fairly certain of where and when has gone back to
mid-November when US 'intelligence' advised Israel and NATO.
BUT
Why?
Who?

PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
Titus G
2020-05-03 04:42:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Titus G
Post by Charles Packer
[& contumely follows]
Wow, what an eruption. Sort of like poking a jellyfish's
nerve net. Conspiracy Theory Immunity Response?
I was surprised at the level of the anger you attracted. There is
another poster here called lala land or something similar and your post
reminded me of his stranger than strange OT posts except his are more
plausible and he wouldn't confuse a Conspiracy Theory with an Elaborate
Hoax.
There was a serious reply from a poster who had personal experience
within the bounds you specified which I think would be easily enough to
cause grief; did you consider that?
I can not get my head around the concept of something involving so many
deaths as "an elaborate hoax".
We know what, are fairly certain of where and when has gone back to
mid-November when US 'intelligence' advised Israel and NATO.
BUT
how can it be a hoax?
Post by Titus G
Why?
Who?
By Whom?
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-03 08:56:00 UTC
Permalink
Post by Titus G
Post by Charles Packer
[& contumely follows]
Wow, what an eruption. Sort of like poking a jellyfish's
nerve net. Conspiracy Theory Immunity Response?
I was surprised at the level of the anger you attracted. There is
another poster here called lala land or something similar and your post
reminded me of his stranger than strange OT posts except his are more
plausible and he wouldn't confuse a Conspiracy Theory with an Elaborate
Hoax.
There was a serious reply from a poster who had personal experience
within the bounds you specified which I think would be easily enough to
cause grief; did you consider that?
I can not get my head around the concept of something involving so many
deaths as "an elaborate hoax".
That is why the suggestion caused offence.

It's like the proposal that a terrorist act didn't happen
but was staged with "crisis actors" playing the roles of
dead children and grieving parents. Which makes the people
who suffered in the real incident very, very angry.
Wolffan
2020-05-03 12:05:58 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by Titus G
[& contumely follows]
Wow, what an eruption. Sort of like poking a jellyfish's
nerve net. Conspiracy Theory Immunity Response?
I was surprised at the level of the anger you attracted. There is
another poster here called lala land or something similar and your post
reminded me of his stranger than strange OT posts except his are more
plausible and he wouldn't confuse a Conspiracy Theory with an Elaborate
Hoax.
There was a serious reply from a poster who had personal experience
within the bounds you specified which I think would be easily enough to
cause grief; did you consider that?
I can not get my head around the concept of something involving so many
deaths as "an elaborate hoax".
That is why the suggestion caused offence.
It's like the proposal that a terrorist act didn't happen
but was staged with "crisis actors" playing the roles of
dead children and grieving parents. Which makes the people
who suffered in the real incident very, very angry.
Or even people who live nearby, and who have relatives who are health
professionals and who saw the ‘crisis actors’ up close and personal. My
tolerance for this kind of idiotic nonsense is very low.
Wolffan
2020-05-03 12:11:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Titus G
[& contumely follows]
Wow, what an eruption. Sort of like poking a jellyfish's
nerve net. Conspiracy Theory Immunity Response?
I was surprised at the level of the anger you attracted.
I wasn’t.
Post by Titus G
There is
another poster here called lala land or something similar and your post
reminded me of his stranger than strange OT posts except his are more
plausible and he wouldn't confuse a Conspiracy Theory with an Elaborate
Hoax.
There was a serious reply from a poster who had personal experience
within the bounds you specified which I think would be easily enough to
cause grief; did you consider that?
he’s an idiot, so no he didn’t.
Post by Titus G
I can not get my head around the concept of something involving so many
deaths as "an elaborate hoax".
only severely brain-damaged fools would entertain the concept.
Post by Titus G
We know what, are fairly certain of where and when has gone back to
mid-November when US 'intelligence' advised Israel and NATO.
BUT
Why?
Possibly someone got careless handling some ‘hot’ stuff. It’s happened
before, it’ll happen again. An accident is considerably more plausable than
a hoax, it’s just not very probable.
Post by Titus G
Who?
no-one.
Post by Titus G
PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
whatever they are, you don’t want them, they’re eaten his brain.
Charles Packer
2020-05-03 13:53:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Titus G
PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
Study the newspaper reportage of the Arnold flying saucer incident
of 1947 at the outset of the Cold War. I should have used other
terminology than "hoax" -- maybe giant international fraternal
social manipulation project, nothing casual about it at all.

I live in a supposed coronavirus problem area, a black neighborhood
in DC where the published number for cases works out to an absurdly
high 1% of the population. My mother-in-law lives in a seniors
building in neighboring Prince George's County. None of us knows
anybody who has encountered the disease.

The speed with which the journalism trade saturated the public
sphere in the course of exploiting the virus for multiple agendas (all of
them noble, one should emphasize) suggests that it might have been
waiting around for something. I believe that something would
have been new disclosures about the history of the Cold War
that were to be made this year sometime. The pandemic seems
somehow to have set off the charge early.

http://cpacker.org
Peter Trei
2020-05-03 14:49:47 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
Post by Titus G
PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
Study the newspaper reportage of the Arnold flying saucer incident
of 1947 at the outset of the Cold War. I should have used other
terminology than "hoax" -- maybe giant international fraternal
social manipulation project, nothing casual about it at all.
I live in a supposed coronavirus problem area, a black neighborhood
in DC where the published number for cases works out to an absurdly
high 1% of the population. My mother-in-law lives in a seniors
building in neighboring Prince George's County. None of us knows
anybody who has encountered the disease.
The speed with which the journalism trade saturated the public
sphere in the course of exploiting the virus for multiple agendas (all of
them noble, one should emphasize) suggests that it might have been
waiting around for something. I believe that something would
have been new disclosures about the history of the Cold War
that were to be made this year sometime. The pandemic seems
somehow to have set off the charge early.
http://cpacker.org
How many examples do you need to convince you this happening?

My cousin in New York is dead, 10 days after testing positive.
At my mothers memory care facility, 13 patients have died.

That you're invoking a "giant international fraternal
social manipulation project" conspiracy theory, tells me
that you lack critical thinking skills.

Are you a David Icke fan as well?

Pt
o***@gmail.com
2020-05-03 16:14:03 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter Trei
Post by Charles Packer
Post by Titus G
PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
Study the newspaper reportage of the Arnold flying saucer incident
of 1947 at the outset of the Cold War. I should have used other
terminology than "hoax" -- maybe giant international fraternal
social manipulation project, nothing casual about it at all.
I live in a supposed coronavirus problem area, a black neighborhood
in DC where the published number for cases works out to an absurdly
high 1% of the population. My mother-in-law lives in a seniors
building in neighboring Prince George's County. None of us knows
anybody who has encountered the disease.
The speed with which the journalism trade saturated the public
sphere in the course of exploiting the virus for multiple agendas (all of
them noble, one should emphasize) suggests that it might have been
waiting around for something. I believe that something would
have been new disclosures about the history of the Cold War
that were to be made this year sometime. The pandemic seems
somehow to have set off the charge early.
http://cpacker.org
How many examples do you need to convince you this happening?
My cousin in New York is dead, 10 days after testing positive.
At my mothers memory care facility, 13 patients have died.
That you're invoking a "giant international fraternal
social manipulation project" conspiracy theory, tells me
that you lack critical thinking skills.
Are you a David Icke fan as well?
Pt
I doubt anyone thinks the virus, itself, is a hoax.

It is the chicken little, dictatorial, overreaction that irritates folks....and it is difficult to describe the public's reaction with one, all encompassing phrase.

The most violent reactions I have seen / experienced are to the horrifyingly shameless implementation of Rahm Emanuel's pronouncement to his cohort: "Never let a crisis go to waste".

In my region, only businesses requiring direct physical contact -- barbers, salons, etc -- are hurting. Upscale restaurants are having problems. But everything else is chugging along.

My only "suffering" is failure to hug my grandkids that live just a few minutes away.
Robert Carnegie
2020-05-03 18:15:08 UTC
Permalink
Post by Charles Packer
Post by Titus G
PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
Study the newspaper reportage of the Arnold flying saucer incident
of 1947 at the outset of the Cold War. I should have used other
terminology than "hoax" -- maybe giant international fraternal
social manipulation project, nothing casual about it at all.
I live in a supposed coronavirus problem area, a black neighborhood
in DC where the published number for cases works out to an absurdly
high 1% of the population. My mother-in-law lives in a seniors
building in neighboring Prince George's County. None of us knows
anybody who has encountered the disease.
The speed with which the journalism trade saturated the public
sphere in the course of exploiting the virus for multiple agendas (all of
them noble, one should emphasize) suggests that it might have been
waiting around for something. I believe that something would
have been new disclosures about the history of the Cold War
that were to be made this year sometime. The pandemic seems
somehow to have set off the charge early.
Rather a lot of people /seem/ to be reporting getting sick,
or seem to be dying of it, for it to be an elaborate prank.
Although who knows how many people on the internet are real;
certainly, a large number are not.

Perhaps you have in mind that most cases are faked, but are
a cover for other people to be... removed. Alien abduction?

<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Prine#Death>

About 50 percent of "A famous person died" reports in the
last couple of months seem to be COVID-19, although I'm not
counting these. And they don't seem to be victims that
aliens would find useful. So maybe Whoever Is Doing It
just wants some people removed since they are... inconvenient.

So if I disappear... perhaps you shouldn't look into it
too closely, or They will come for you too.

Or perhaps they will anyway, now that I've told you.
Jaimie Vandenbergh
2020-05-03 18:52:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
About 50 percent of "A famous person died" reports in the
last couple of months seem to be COVID-19, although I'm not
counting these. And they don't seem to be victims that
aliens would find useful.
Oh, I don't know. I'm of the opinion that any aliens visiting will hardly be
short of the ability to create/acquire most natural goods, but a competent
actor, singer, artist? Far shorter supply.

They've been taken up for the intergalactic art market.

Cheers - Jaimie
--
"I think man is the most interesting insect on earth, don't you?"
-- Marvin the Martian
Peter Trei
2020-05-03 19:19:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by Charles Packer
Post by Titus G
PS Where can I get the same meds you are on?
Study the newspaper reportage of the Arnold flying saucer incident
of 1947 at the outset of the Cold War. I should have used other
terminology than "hoax" -- maybe giant international fraternal
social manipulation project, nothing casual about it at all.
I live in a supposed coronavirus problem area, a black neighborhood
in DC where the published number for cases works out to an absurdly
high 1% of the population. My mother-in-law lives in a seniors
building in neighboring Prince George's County. None of us knows
anybody who has encountered the disease.
The speed with which the journalism trade saturated the public
sphere in the course of exploiting the virus for multiple agendas (all of
them noble, one should emphasize) suggests that it might have been
waiting around for something. I believe that something would
have been new disclosures about the history of the Cold War
that were to be made this year sometime. The pandemic seems
somehow to have set off the charge early.
Rather a lot of people /seem/ to be reporting getting sick,
or seem to be dying of it, for it to be an elaborate prank.
Although who knows how many people on the internet are real;
certainly, a large number are not.
Perhaps you have in mind that most cases are faked, but are
a cover for other people to be... removed. Alien abduction?
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Prine#Death>
About 50 percent of "A famous person died" reports in the
last couple of months seem to be COVID-19, although I'm not
counting these. And they don't seem to be victims that
aliens would find useful. So maybe Whoever Is Doing It
just wants some people removed since they are... inconvenient.
I took a very quick peak at the reported deaths in MA at the peak of the outbreak, and found that
the death rate had briefly doubled, in line with your observation.

My brother in NYC, who is handling arrangements for my cousin, has found that it is impossible
to inter him anytime soon. Graveyards reporting three times the normal traffic. We will cremate
him and enter him some time later.

Pt
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