Discussion:
Re the climate change report...
Add Reply
l***@yahoo.com
2018-11-25 21:26:23 UTC
Reply
Permalink
...I'm sure there have been many futuristic novels predicting disaster because of climate change, though I don't know the names of the more famous ones. (Do you? Especially those written before 1980 or so?)

I just wish scientists would stick to predicting what's likely to happen by 2050, not 2100, since obviously most of the people who will be around by then aren't even old enough to be watching the news yet. (Not to mention that even young adults who want children can't be sure they'll ever be grandparents, so for many of them, the reaction is "who cares?")

Anyway, I thought I'd quote this passage from 1977. I shouldn't tell you the book's title or who wrote it, since either one would be a big fat spoiler, in a way, but you might figure it out. (It takes place circa 2150 - but the exact date is never given. However, it said the disastrous floods would happen earlier - circa 2050.)

An old woman does the explaining:

"The machines and gadgets that were so important to you took too much energy to run. And too many people wanted them. There was no sharing, each man and each nation guarded his own. There were bad times - wars, famines, and destruction...

"...there were floods that destroyed the great coastal cities and the people fled inland and there was a period of famine and disease. There were earthquakes and fires, and the crops that the people cultivated would not grow. We have few written records from those dark days. Books and papers tell us much of what happened before the floods. But I suppose that during the years when their civilization collapsed, the people were too busy searching for food and fighting disease to record these happenings. They were a people without vision and without hope - they simply gave up...

"...We are a peaceful people and strive to live in the world and not to conquer it. Our great fear is of repeating the mistakes of the past - though we have little chance to repeat them. The resources and reserves of energy that we would need to imitate your way of life are all gone."



Lenona.
Lynn McGuire
2018-11-25 23:16:37 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by l***@yahoo.com
...I'm sure there have been many futuristic novels predicting disaster because of climate change, though I don't know the names of the more famous ones. (Do you? Especially those written before 1980 or so?)
I just wish scientists would stick to predicting what's likely to happen by 2050, not 2100, since obviously most of the people who will be around by then aren't even old enough to be watching the news yet. (Not to mention that even young adults who want children can't be sure they'll ever be grandparents, so for many of them, the reaction is "who cares?")
Anyway, I thought I'd quote this passage from 1977. I shouldn't tell you the book's title or who wrote it, since either one would be a big fat spoiler, in a way, but you might figure it out. (It takes place circa 2150 - but the exact date is never given. However, it said the disastrous floods would happen earlier - circa 2050.)
"The machines and gadgets that were so important to you took too much energy to run. And too many people wanted them. There was no sharing, each man and each nation guarded his own. There were bad times - wars, famines, and destruction...
"...there were floods that destroyed the great coastal cities and the people fled inland and there was a period of famine and disease. There were earthquakes and fires, and the crops that the people cultivated would not grow. We have few written records from those dark days. Books and papers tell us much of what happened before the floods. But I suppose that during the years when their civilization collapsed, the people were too busy searching for food and fighting disease to record these happenings. They were a people without vision and without hope - they simply gave up...
"...We are a peaceful people and strive to live in the world and not to conquer it. Our great fear is of repeating the mistakes of the past - though we have little chance to repeat them. The resources and reserves of energy that we would need to imitate your way of life are all gone."
Lenona.
A book by Ben Bova ? S. M. Stirling ? Andre Norton ?

Lynn
l***@yahoo.com
2018-11-26 15:06:24 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Well, this is fun, so I'll give two hints.

1. It's a fantasy, not a sci-fi novel.

2. It was written by a non-American.
Robert Carnegie
2018-11-25 23:40:16 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by l***@yahoo.com
...I'm sure there have been many futuristic novels predicting disaster because of climate change, though I don't know the names of the more famous ones. (Do you? Especially those written before 1980 or so?)
I just wish scientists would stick to predicting what's likely to happen by 2050, not 2100, since obviously most of the people who will be around by then aren't even old enough to be watching the news yet. (Not to mention that even young adults who want children can't be sure they'll ever be grandparents, so for many of them, the reaction is "who cares?")
Anyway, I thought I'd quote this passage from 1977. I shouldn't tell you the book's title or who wrote it, since either one would be a big fat spoiler, in a way, but you might figure it out. (It takes place circa 2150 - but the exact date is never given. However, it said the disastrous floods would happen earlier - circa 2050.)
"The machines and gadgets that were so important to you took too much energy to run. And too many people wanted them. There was no sharing, each man and each nation guarded his own. There were bad times - wars, famines, and destruction...
"...there were floods that destroyed the great coastal cities and the people fled inland and there was a period of famine and disease. There were earthquakes and fires, and the crops that the people cultivated would not grow. We have few written records from those dark days. Books and papers tell us much of what happened before the floods. But I suppose that during the years when their civilization collapsed, the people were too busy searching for food and fighting disease to record these happenings. They were a people without vision and without hope - they simply gave up...
"...We are a peaceful people and strive to live in the world and not to conquer it. Our great fear is of repeating the mistakes of the past - though we have little chance to repeat them. The resources and reserves of energy that we would need to imitate your way of life are all gone."
Interesting that she's addressing someone from either the past,
or I guess another planet or an alternate dimension that still
uses heavy industry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Dave
Robert Carnegie
2018-11-25 23:44:39 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by l***@yahoo.com
...I'm sure there have been many futuristic novels predicting disaster because of climate change, though I don't know the names of the more famous ones. (Do you? Especially those written before 1980 or so?)
I just wish scientists would stick to predicting what's likely to happen by 2050, not 2100, since obviously most of the people who will be around by then aren't even old enough to be watching the news yet. (Not to mention that even young adults who want children can't be sure they'll ever be grandparents, so for many of them, the reaction is "who cares?")
Anyway, I thought I'd quote this passage from 1977. I shouldn't tell you the book's title or who wrote it, since either one would be a big fat spoiler, in a way, but you might figure it out. (It takes place circa 2150 - but the exact date is never given. However, it said the disastrous floods would happen earlier - circa 2050.)
"The machines and gadgets that were so important to you took too much energy to run. And too many people wanted them. There was no sharing, each man and each nation guarded his own. There were bad times - wars, famines, and destruction...
"...there were floods that destroyed the great coastal cities and the people fled inland and there was a period of famine and disease. There were earthquakes and fires, and the crops that the people cultivated would not grow. We have few written records from those dark days. Books and papers tell us much of what happened before the floods. But I suppose that during the years when their civilization collapsed, the people were too busy searching for food and fighting disease to record these happenings. They were a people without vision and without hope - they simply gave up...
"...We are a peaceful people and strive to live in the world and not to conquer it. Our great fear is of repeating the mistakes of the past - though we have little chance to repeat them. The resources and reserves of energy that we would need to imitate your way of life are all gone."
Interesting that she's addressing someone from either the past,
or I guess another planet or an alternate dimension that still
uses heavy industry.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Dave
...isn't the book, but is an example of how any writing that
/does/ reach the future from our time may be more influential
than, frankly, it deserves. Frustrated writers take note.
Dorothy J Heydt
2018-11-26 00:29:07 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by l***@yahoo.com
...I'm sure there have been many futuristic novels predicting disaster
because of climate change, though I don't know the names of the more
famous ones. (Do you? Especially those written before 1980 or so?)
I just wish scientists would stick to predicting what's likely to happen
by 2050, not 2100, since obviously most of the people who will be around
by then aren't even old enough to be watching the news yet. (Not to
mention that even young adults who want children can't be sure they'll
ever be grandparents, so for many of them, the reaction is "who cares?")
Anyway, I thought I'd quote this passage from 1977. I shouldn't tell you
the book's title or who wrote it, since either one would be a big fat
spoiler, in a way, but you might figure it out. (It takes place circa
2150 - but the exact date is never given. However, it said the
disastrous floods would happen earlier - circa 2050.)
"The machines and gadgets that were so important to you took too much
energy to run. And too many people wanted them. There was no sharing,
each man and each nation guarded his own. There were bad times - wars,
famines, and destruction...
"...there were floods that destroyed the great coastal cities and the
people fled inland and there was a period of famine and disease. There
were earthquakes and fires, and the crops that the people cultivated
would not grow. We have few written records from those dark days. Books
and papers tell us much of what happened before the floods. But I
suppose that during the years when their civilization collapsed, the
people were too busy searching for food and fighting disease to record
these happenings. They were a people without vision and without hope -
they simply gave up...
"...We are a peaceful people and strive to live in the world and not to
conquer it. Our great fear is of repeating the mistakes of the past -
though we have little chance to repeat them. The resources and reserves
of energy that we would need to imitate your way of life are all gone."
Well, it *sounds* like one of James White's Sector General books.
I'd have to get up and leaf through all^H^H^Hmost of them to find
out which one, but there's at least one planet in just that kind
of trouble.

But it isn't on Earth in 2150, so can't be that ne.
--
Dorothy J. Heydt
Vallejo, California
djheydt at gmail dot com
www.kithrup.com/~djheydt/
Quadibloc
2018-11-26 17:51:21 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Here is what is happening *now* because of global warming:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550

John Savard
J. Clarke
2018-11-26 18:14:32 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
Peter Trei
2018-11-26 19:14:57 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
You might want to look at the report just released by the Trump administration:
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov

TL,DNR: Climate change and sea level rise are real, and getting worse.

pt
Scott Lurndal
2018-11-26 19:18:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov
TL,DNR: Climate change and sea level rise are real, and getting worse.
The other thing to consider is the relationship between MSL and any one
particular point on a geoid. MSL is a global mean, and there are
a number of factors that cause actual sea level to be considerably higher
or lower than MSL at any one point on the geoid, with a correspondingly
higher or lower delta over time.
John Halpenny
2018-11-27 02:58:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Scott Lurndal
Post by Peter Trei
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov
TL,DNR: Climate change and sea level rise are real, and getting worse.
The other thing to consider is the relationship between MSL and any one
particular point on a geoid. MSL is a global mean, and there are
a number of factors that cause actual sea level to be considerably higher
or lower than MSL at any one point on the geoid, with a correspondingly
higher or lower delta over time.
In most of Canada, sea level is going DOWN with respect to the land. Since the end of the last ice age, the ground is rising at a rate much faster than sea level change, and new land is appearing along the Arctic and Hudson Bay lowlands.

There will be lots of new territory to accommodate the refugees from the south.

John
Dan Tilque
2018-12-01 22:49:10 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by John Halpenny
In most of Canada, sea level is going DOWN with respect to the land. Since the end of the last ice age, the ground is rising at a rate much faster than sea level change, and new land is appearing along the Arctic and Hudson Bay lowlands.
But there's also land that's going down because of the post-glacial
rebound. Areas near where the glaciers were for several hundred miles
outward were pushed up during the ice age and are now returning to their
previous altitudes. For the North American east coast, that means New
Jersey down at least to Virginia, perhaps further. Those areas will
suffer more flooding than most as sea level rises. Already are, in fact.
Post by John Halpenny
There will be lots of new territory to accommodate the refugees from the south.
Right. Like everyone's clamoring to move to Hudson Bay. Even with
global warming, it's not going to to become all that much more hospitable.

This reminds me that there are some Greenlanders who want the ice
melted. Damn if I know why. When the ice melts, all they're going to
have is a lot of bare rock. It's not like it's going to be useful for much.
--
Dan Tilque
J. Clarke
2018-12-01 23:48:52 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Dan Tilque
Post by John Halpenny
In most of Canada, sea level is going DOWN with respect to the land. Since the end of the last ice age, the ground is rising at a rate much faster than sea level change, and new land is appearing along the Arctic and Hudson Bay lowlands.
But there's also land that's going down because of the post-glacial
rebound. Areas near where the glaciers were for several hundred miles
outward were pushed up during the ice age and are now returning to their
previous altitudes. For the North American east coast, that means New
Jersey down at least to Virginia, perhaps further. Those areas will
suffer more flooding than most as sea level rises. Already are, in fact.
Post by John Halpenny
There will be lots of new territory to accommodate the refugees from the south.
Right. Like everyone's clamoring to move to Hudson Bay. Even with
global warming, it's not going to to become all that much more hospitable.
This reminds me that there are some Greenlanders who want the ice
melted. Damn if I know why. When the ice melts, all they're going to
have is a lot of bare rock. It's not like it's going to be useful for much.
What leads you to believe that all that they will have is bare rock?

<https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2014/06/what-under-greenland%E2%80%99s-ice>
Robert Carnegie
2018-11-26 22:26:44 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
Why else are their wells producing salt water?

Land is flatter, on the whole, than you're allowing for.
Lynn McGuire
2018-11-26 23:04:52 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
Why else are their wells producing salt water?
Land is flatter, on the whole, than you're allowing for.
Fresh water wells along the Texas Gulf Coast are having problems with
salt water incursion due to excessive water pumping. My parents town,
Port Lavaca, is getting ready to convert from ground water to surface
water using a river.

Lynn
J. Clarke
2018-11-26 23:25:18 UTC
Reply
Permalink
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 14:26:44 -0800 (PST), Robert Carnegie
Post by Robert Carnegie
Post by J. Clarke
On Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:51:21 -0800 (PST), Quadibloc
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
If we buy that a 4 inch change in sea level has produced that much
flooding.
Why else are their wells producing salt water?
Land is flatter, on the whole, than you're allowing for.
Parts of that area are supposedly experiencing subsidence at three
times the sea rise rate.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969715300589
Lynn McGuire
2018-11-26 21:14:15 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
John Savard
That is subsidence. The oceans are not rising appreciably. Building
ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.

Lynn
Cryptoengineer
2018-11-27 02:45:47 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
John Savard
That is subsidence. The oceans are not rising appreciably. Building
ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
No Lynn, this is NOT on top of a volcano. This is Bangladesh. Do you even
know where that is?

You may be thinking of Vanuatu.

I suggest you watch this series:

https://www.pbs.org/show/sinking-cities/

pt
Scott Lurndal
2018-11-27 14:07:56 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Cryptoengineer
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
John Savard
That is subsidence. The oceans are not rising appreciably. Building
ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
No Lynn, this is NOT on top of a volcano. This is Bangladesh. Do you even
know where that is?
You may be thinking of Vanuatu.
https://www.pbs.org/show/sinking-cities/
Now Peter, you know that Lynn believes that PBS is the devil and
only Fox News is accurate, right?
Lynn McGuire
2018-12-02 22:50:23 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Cryptoengineer
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
John Savard
That is subsidence. The oceans are not rising appreciably. Building
ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
No Lynn, this is NOT on top of a volcano. This is Bangladesh. Do you even
know where that is?
You may be thinking of Vanuatu.
https://www.pbs.org/show/sinking-cities/
pt
Yup, you are correct, I was thinking of another place.

Lynn
Cryptoengineer
2018-12-02 23:27:49 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Cryptoengineer
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
John Savard
That is subsidence. The oceans are not rising appreciably.
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
No Lynn, this is NOT on top of a volcano. This is Bangladesh. Do you
even know where that is?
You may be thinking of Vanuatu.
https://www.pbs.org/show/sinking-cities/
pt
Yup, you are correct, I was thinking of another place.
If you're going to try the show, I suggest you take a look at the
episode about Miami.

pt
Lynn McGuire
2018-12-03 00:40:31 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Cryptoengineer
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Cryptoengineer
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Quadibloc
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-45715550
John Savard
That is subsidence. The oceans are not rising appreciably.
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
No Lynn, this is NOT on top of a volcano. This is Bangladesh. Do you
even know where that is?
You may be thinking of Vanuatu.
https://www.pbs.org/show/sinking-cities/
pt
Yup, you are correct, I was thinking of another place.
If you're going to try the show, I suggest you take a look at the
episode about Miami.
pt
You are aware that I live outside Houston, Texas, right ? King of the
subsidence areas in the western hemisphere as far as I know. We've got
areas around here that have subsided over ten feet and approaching
twenty feet.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Brownwood-The-suburb-that-sank-by-the-Ship-4379765.php

Lynn
Scott Lurndal
2018-12-03 14:33:25 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
You are aware that I live outside Houston, Texas, right ? King of the
subsidence areas in the western hemisphere as far as I know. We've got
areas around here that have subsided over ten feet and approaching
twenty feet.
Some areas almost 8 meters of subsidence.

https://ca.water.usgs.gov/projects/central-valley/land-subsidence-san-joaquin-valley.html
lal_truckee
2018-11-27 16:53:55 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
True; but hardly pertinent to the discussion.
Peter Trei
2018-11-27 17:37:21 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by lal_truckee
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
True; but hardly pertinent to the discussion.
Looking at his post again, I think Lynn is trying to imply that
these people have been so foolish and reckless that any negative
consequences they face rising sea levels are their own fault, and
they deserve neither sympathy nor help.

They should not have been so irresponsible as to live in the place they
were born, and which has sustained them and their ancestors for the
past several thousand years.

pt
Dimensional Traveler
2018-11-27 17:47:35 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Peter Trei
Post by lal_truckee
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
True; but hardly pertinent to the discussion.
Looking at his post again, I think Lynn is trying to imply that
these people have been so foolish and reckless that any negative
consequences they face rising sea levels are their own fault, and
they deserve neither sympathy nor help.
They should not have been so irresponsible as to live in the place they
were born, and which has sustained them and their ancestors for the
past several thousand years.
While denying that sea levels are rising and denying that humans could
have possibly done anything to cause sea levels to rise.
--
Inquiring minds want to know while minds with a self-preservation
instinct are running screaming.
Lynn McGuire
2018-12-02 22:49:45 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Peter Trei
Post by lal_truckee
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
True; but hardly pertinent to the discussion.
Looking at his post again, I think Lynn is trying to imply that
these people have been so foolish and reckless that any negative
consequences they face rising sea levels are their own fault, and
they deserve neither sympathy nor help.
They should not have been so irresponsible as to live in the place they
were born, and which has sustained them and their ancestors for the
past several thousand years.
While denying that sea levels are rising and denying that humans could
have possibly done anything to cause sea levels to rise.
Actually humans have caused the sea levels to rise locally by pumping
ground water, crude oil, natural gas, sulfur, and other valuable items
to the surface. The pumping causes a void in the ground and the surface
settles. Happens every time.

As to the actual sea levels rising, a rise of four ??? inches over the
last 100 ??? years does not worry me.

Lynn
Alan Baker
2018-12-02 23:09:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Peter Trei
Post by lal_truckee
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
True; but hardly pertinent to the discussion.
Looking at his post again, I think Lynn is trying to imply that
these people have been so foolish and reckless that any negative
consequences they face rising sea levels are their own fault, and
they deserve neither sympathy nor help.
They should not have been so irresponsible as to live in the place they
were born, and which has sustained them and their ancestors for the
past several thousand years.
While denying that sea levels are rising and denying that humans could
have possibly done anything to cause sea levels to rise.
Actually humans have caused the sea levels to rise locally by pumping
ground water, crude oil, natural gas, sulfur, and other valuable items
to the surface.  The pumping causes a void in the ground and the surface
settles.  Happens every time.
As to the actual sea levels rising, a rise of four ??? inches over the
last 100 ??? years does not worry me.
Lynn
Would it worry you if it was point out that the rise was one inch over
the first 95 years and then 3 inches over the last 5... ...and the rate
was accelerating?

I'm not saying that's what it is, but I'm pointing out that your
overly-simplistic view on the subject really isn't helpful.
Robert Carnegie
2018-12-03 01:29:09 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
Post by Dimensional Traveler
Post by Peter Trei
Post by lal_truckee
Building ones home on top of a volcano is dangerous.
True; but hardly pertinent to the discussion.
Looking at his post again, I think Lynn is trying to imply that
these people have been so foolish and reckless that any negative
consequences they face rising sea levels are their own fault, and
they deserve neither sympathy nor help.
They should not have been so irresponsible as to live in the place they
were born, and which has sustained them and their ancestors for the
past several thousand years.
While denying that sea levels are rising and denying that humans could
have possibly done anything to cause sea levels to rise.
Actually humans have caused the sea levels to rise locally by pumping
ground water, crude oil, natural gas, sulfur, and other valuable items
to the surface. The pumping causes a void in the ground and the surface
settles. Happens every time.
As to the actual sea levels rising, a rise of four ??? inches over the
last 100 ??? years does not worry me.
Lynn
Nah, we also extract stuff from the sea. In and under.
Loading...