Discussion:
xkcd: Confidence Interval
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Lynn McGuire
2020-05-26 18:58:25 UTC
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xkcd: Confidence Interval
https://xkcd.com/2311/

Yup, that is the confidence bars on all non first principles (measured
data) software today. Software like Global Warming Prediction and
SARS-COV-2 Death Rates.

Explained at:
https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2311:_Confidence_Interval

Lynn
Chrysi Cat
2020-05-28 17:53:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Lynn McGuire
xkcd: Confidence Interval
   https://xkcd.com/2311/
Yup, that is the confidence bars on all non first principles (measured
data) software today.  Software like Global Warming Prediction and
SARS-COV-2 Death Rates.
   https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2311:_Confidence_Interval
Lynn
Eff off and keep right on effing, Lynn. You're still seriously trying to
tell us that the asymptomatic-carrier rate of COVID-19 is near enough to
100 percent that its death rate is lower than standard influenza with
*100k Americans dead from just it*?

Or is this the "well, 95 percent of those people would be dead today
anyway, so they're cooking the books by counting anyone who dies *while*
infected as dying /from/ the infection" gambit?
--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger.
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!
Peter Trei
2020-05-28 20:55:55 UTC
Permalink
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
xkcd: Confidence Interval
   https://xkcd.com/2311/
Yup, that is the confidence bars on all non first principles (measured
data) software today.  Software like Global Warming Prediction and
SARS-COV-2 Death Rates.
   https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2311:_Confidence_Interval
Lynn
Eff off and keep right on effing, Lynn. You're still seriously trying to
tell us that the asymptomatic-carrier rate of COVID-19 is near enough to
100 percent that its death rate is lower than standard influenza with
*100k Americans dead from just it*?
Or is this the "well, 95 percent of those people would be dead today
anyway, so they're cooking the books by counting anyone who dies *while*
infected as dying /from/ the infection" gambit?
During flu season, most years, you don't see reefer trucks lined up outside hospitals
to hold the dead bodies.

We can't bury my cousin in NYC because the graveyards are
doing 3x normal business. He had to be cremated, and we may get to inter the ashes
in the fall

Don't tell me this is harmless.

Pt
Chrysi Cat
2020-05-28 22:11:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter Trei
Post by Chrysi Cat
Post by Lynn McGuire
xkcd: Confidence Interval
   https://xkcd.com/2311/
Yup, that is the confidence bars on all non first principles (measured
data) software today.  Software like Global Warming Prediction and
SARS-COV-2 Death Rates.
   https://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/2311:_Confidence_Interval
Lynn
Eff off and keep right on effing, Lynn. You're still seriously trying to
tell us that the asymptomatic-carrier rate of COVID-19 is near enough to
100 percent that its death rate is lower than standard influenza with
*100k Americans dead from just it*?
Or is this the "well, 95 percent of those people would be dead today
anyway, so they're cooking the books by counting anyone who dies *while*
infected as dying /from/ the infection" gambit?
During flu season, most years, you don't see reefer trucks lined up outside hospitals
to hold the dead bodies.
We can't bury my cousin in NYC because the graveyards are
doing 3x normal business. He had to be cremated, and we may get to inter the ashes
in the fall
Don't tell me this is harmless.
Pt
Thank you for the followup that will push me past the plonkling that
Lynn has inevitably given me, since he mentioned people that I'll admit
aren't quite as ideologically-driven as me having "earned" one in the
"Oh, Texas" thread. And yes, I figured I was speaking for more people
than I wasn't when I fired on him.
--
Chrysi Cat
1/2 anthrocat, nearly 1/2 anthrofox, all magical
Transgoddess, quick to anger.
Call me Chrysi or call me Kat, I'll respond to either!
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