Post by Ahasuerus
On Wednesday, August 8, 2018 at 12:54:54 PM UTC-4, Ted Nolan
Post by Ted Nolan <tednolan>
It looks like there is no overlap with the Hugos this year
although different eligibility rules may affect the picture.
There is some overlap with the 2017 Goodreads awards
(http://www.isfdb.org/cgi-bin/ay.cgi?70+2017) with eligibility
once again being the wild card. For example, _Persepolis Rising_
(2017) vs. _Babylon's Ashes_ (2016) or the fact that Martha Wells's
"All Systems Red" (32k words) and Neal Stephenson/Nicole Galland's
doorstop _The Rise and Fall of D.O.D.O._ are in the same Goodreads
File770 posted an article discussing the overlap between the Dragon
Awards ballot and various other sources.
It was soon updated after it was pointed out it was at least partially
due to the significant divergence of eligibility periods, Dragon is
basically 6 months offset from Hugo and most? other awards.
In this case only two of the six Hugo nominees were eligibile though
both do have Goodreads rating number suggesting they "ought" to have
had a good shot of making it. One option is that they could have
declined, he's checked and Leckie didn't withdraw any but Nemsins
agent hasn't answered yet.
"Happy Frogs" managed to get 2 of their 15 into the nominee list
however those two were ones that was likely going to be there anyway.
Vox Day list got 3 of 15 into the nominee list though none of the ones
that made it was published by Vox/Castalia House, and again it was
entries that likely would have made it without Vox.
The Goodreads rating suggests that many (most?) categories seesm to be
a mix of a few (1-2) entries with very high ratings and the rest have
low or very low number of ratings. IE, the middle field is mostly
missing, this could be due to many reasons but I suspect at least some
of them are due to publicity campaigns by less well-known authors with
a small but avid fan base.
One complicating factor is that it's very easy if not trivial to do
ballot stuffing due to the way it's set up and the lack of
transparency of what they're doing to combat this, if anything.
Post by Ahasuerus
It would be interesting to see how the correlation between different
awards has changed over the years. Dragon awards are still new, so
there is not much data to work with, but something like Hugo vs.
Nebula might be illuminating.
has most, possibly all, of the data needed for to do this and it's
discussed somewhat but the field has changed enough over the years
that it's hard to do short that gives a fair picture.