Joe Bernstein
2020-01-15 23:10:53 UTC
Yesterday, prompted by the withdrawal of Cory Booker, who was at that
point my preferred candidate for the Democratic nomination for
President in the 2020 election, I wrote a post sorting the candidates
by generation, and noting that of four "Silent Generation" candidates,
three were still in the race; of "Baby Boomers", 6/12 (admittedly,
boosted by two late entrants); of "Generation X", after Booker's
withdrawal, 1/9; and of "Millennials", 2/3.
I was surprised to find that the "Silent Generation" had not produced
a US President so far. Major party nominees from that generation, as
tentatively defined at English Wikipedia, include John McCain, John
Kerry, Michael Dukakis and arguably Walter Mondale. This complicates
my basic feeling that damn it, it's time for Gen X, more specifically
time for people born in the 1940s to stop running the country. (All
the remaining "Silent Generation" candidates were born in the 1940s;
Mike Gravel, who dropped out, was born in 1930.)
Historically, it isn't obviously time for Gen X. Many Presidents
have been elected in their later 50s, which presently means the tail
end of the Baby Boom. However, many have also been elected in their
early 50s, and some in their 40s, all of which *does* mean Gen X.
Part of my reason for wanting to hurry my generation along is that
I strongly expect the party out of power in 2024 to nominate a
Millennial, and do not expect a non-Millennial to be first elected
between 2028 and sometime around 2050.
This is partly based on recent history. For almost the first century,
the longest gap between presidential birth years was nine years -
about right for two-term presidencies. The first longer gap was that
between Lincoln, born in 1809, and Grant and Hayes, 1822, but a spell
of reasonable spacing followed that. Another 13-year gap separates
McKinley, born in 1843, from Wilson, 1856 (with Taft and Roosevelt
shortly after), but again normal spacing follows through Eisenhower
in 1890.
Then, however, things get peculiar. All the presidents from 1961
through 1993 were born between 1908 and 1924. No president was born
between 1890 and 1908, and none so far between 1924 and 1946. Three
presidents born in 1946 and one in 1961 complete the story. In other
words, first the "Greatest Generation" and then the Baby Boomers have
basically hogged this job. My fear is that my generation, like the
"Lost" and "Silent" ones, will be eclipsed by demographic powerhouses
on either side, and the Millennials - or more likely, some smaller
cohort of them, like the 1946 bunch among the Baby Boomers - will
do still more hogging.
This fear is partly based on some work I did a month or so ago, in
which I found that only four men born after 1950 have run any branch
of the federal government: Bill Frist, Senate Majority Leader 2003-
2007, born 1952; John Roberts, Chief Justice since 2005, born 1955;
Barack Obama, President 2009-2017, born 1961; and Paul Ryan, Speaker
of the House 2015-2019, born 1970. No leader of House Democrats has
been born later than Nancy Pelosi (1941). Reports have circulated
claiming that Congress has in general gotten older recently, and it's
well known that the Supreme Court has, although new justices rather
more famously have gotten younger. But I haven't done any work to
confirm any of that.
One question is, is this creeping gerontocracy, or is it simply the
persistence of the Baby Boomers? In other words, will there be some
future election like those in the early 1970s that radically reduces
the average age in Congress? There'll almost certainly be an
election in which some Millennial replaces a septuagenarian as
President, but one office does not a gerontocracy make. It's just
easier to study quickly.
I'm also not clear on how widely this is going on. Canada hasn't had
any premiers born in 1946, and only two Baby Boomers, Harper and
(briefly) Campbell; its current leader, who was famously "young" when
first elected, is a Gen Xer born in 1971. Mexican presidents going
back before honest elections have been reasonably spaced, including
at least one each from Gen X and the Silents, and several Baby
Boomers, including the present incumbent. British prime ministers
have also been reasonably spaced, Cameron technically Gen X (1966),
Johnson not (1964) by my standards, but yours may differ. French
presidents ditto; Macron is the youngest person so far mentioned in
this post, born in 1977, though *not* famously "young" when first
elected. German chancellors tend to have much longer terms of office,
so haven't reached Gen X yet (Merkel is actually the first Boomer!).
But none of these countries have skipped the Silent Generation, most
have elected Gen Xers, and basically, the whole question I'm worrying
about must look silly to their residents. That said, I know nothing
about the age composition of their respective parliaments, or how
that's changed over time.
A final question: Why does any of this matter? Well, the famous
slowness of the Supreme Court to grasp the existence of the Internet
is a reasonable example. There has to be some sort of compromise
between the energy, *and fitness for current life*, of the young,
and the experience and wisdom of the old, in choosing people to run
things including politics; historically that compromise has focused
on people who enter office in their 50s, or occasionally their 40s,
and it's extraordinary that we're looking at two successive
presidential elections in which people in their 70s are the major
party nominees. I'm conservative enough to view this novelty with
deep suspicion, and if, as I suspect, it's a sign of a deeper
gerontocratic trend in the US, with more concern than that. I also,
of course, have the quasi-self-interested concerns outlined above.
And am not best pleased now to have to decide between Yang (1975) on
the one hand, or Bennet (1964), Delaney (1963) or Klobuchar (1960) on
the other - none of whom has a significant chance of nomination
anyway. Maybe I should stretch my standards a bit and consider
Patrick (1956) or Steyer (1957). (Warren is the other remaining Baby
Boomer. The Silents still in are Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders; the
remaining Millennials Buttigieg and Gabbard.)
Joe Bernstein
point my preferred candidate for the Democratic nomination for
President in the 2020 election, I wrote a post sorting the candidates
by generation, and noting that of four "Silent Generation" candidates,
three were still in the race; of "Baby Boomers", 6/12 (admittedly,
boosted by two late entrants); of "Generation X", after Booker's
withdrawal, 1/9; and of "Millennials", 2/3.
I was surprised to find that the "Silent Generation" had not produced
a US President so far. Major party nominees from that generation, as
tentatively defined at English Wikipedia, include John McCain, John
Kerry, Michael Dukakis and arguably Walter Mondale. This complicates
my basic feeling that damn it, it's time for Gen X, more specifically
time for people born in the 1940s to stop running the country. (All
the remaining "Silent Generation" candidates were born in the 1940s;
Mike Gravel, who dropped out, was born in 1930.)
Historically, it isn't obviously time for Gen X. Many Presidents
have been elected in their later 50s, which presently means the tail
end of the Baby Boom. However, many have also been elected in their
early 50s, and some in their 40s, all of which *does* mean Gen X.
Part of my reason for wanting to hurry my generation along is that
I strongly expect the party out of power in 2024 to nominate a
Millennial, and do not expect a non-Millennial to be first elected
between 2028 and sometime around 2050.
This is partly based on recent history. For almost the first century,
the longest gap between presidential birth years was nine years -
about right for two-term presidencies. The first longer gap was that
between Lincoln, born in 1809, and Grant and Hayes, 1822, but a spell
of reasonable spacing followed that. Another 13-year gap separates
McKinley, born in 1843, from Wilson, 1856 (with Taft and Roosevelt
shortly after), but again normal spacing follows through Eisenhower
in 1890.
Then, however, things get peculiar. All the presidents from 1961
through 1993 were born between 1908 and 1924. No president was born
between 1890 and 1908, and none so far between 1924 and 1946. Three
presidents born in 1946 and one in 1961 complete the story. In other
words, first the "Greatest Generation" and then the Baby Boomers have
basically hogged this job. My fear is that my generation, like the
"Lost" and "Silent" ones, will be eclipsed by demographic powerhouses
on either side, and the Millennials - or more likely, some smaller
cohort of them, like the 1946 bunch among the Baby Boomers - will
do still more hogging.
This fear is partly based on some work I did a month or so ago, in
which I found that only four men born after 1950 have run any branch
of the federal government: Bill Frist, Senate Majority Leader 2003-
2007, born 1952; John Roberts, Chief Justice since 2005, born 1955;
Barack Obama, President 2009-2017, born 1961; and Paul Ryan, Speaker
of the House 2015-2019, born 1970. No leader of House Democrats has
been born later than Nancy Pelosi (1941). Reports have circulated
claiming that Congress has in general gotten older recently, and it's
well known that the Supreme Court has, although new justices rather
more famously have gotten younger. But I haven't done any work to
confirm any of that.
One question is, is this creeping gerontocracy, or is it simply the
persistence of the Baby Boomers? In other words, will there be some
future election like those in the early 1970s that radically reduces
the average age in Congress? There'll almost certainly be an
election in which some Millennial replaces a septuagenarian as
President, but one office does not a gerontocracy make. It's just
easier to study quickly.
I'm also not clear on how widely this is going on. Canada hasn't had
any premiers born in 1946, and only two Baby Boomers, Harper and
(briefly) Campbell; its current leader, who was famously "young" when
first elected, is a Gen Xer born in 1971. Mexican presidents going
back before honest elections have been reasonably spaced, including
at least one each from Gen X and the Silents, and several Baby
Boomers, including the present incumbent. British prime ministers
have also been reasonably spaced, Cameron technically Gen X (1966),
Johnson not (1964) by my standards, but yours may differ. French
presidents ditto; Macron is the youngest person so far mentioned in
this post, born in 1977, though *not* famously "young" when first
elected. German chancellors tend to have much longer terms of office,
so haven't reached Gen X yet (Merkel is actually the first Boomer!).
But none of these countries have skipped the Silent Generation, most
have elected Gen Xers, and basically, the whole question I'm worrying
about must look silly to their residents. That said, I know nothing
about the age composition of their respective parliaments, or how
that's changed over time.
A final question: Why does any of this matter? Well, the famous
slowness of the Supreme Court to grasp the existence of the Internet
is a reasonable example. There has to be some sort of compromise
between the energy, *and fitness for current life*, of the young,
and the experience and wisdom of the old, in choosing people to run
things including politics; historically that compromise has focused
on people who enter office in their 50s, or occasionally their 40s,
and it's extraordinary that we're looking at two successive
presidential elections in which people in their 70s are the major
party nominees. I'm conservative enough to view this novelty with
deep suspicion, and if, as I suspect, it's a sign of a deeper
gerontocratic trend in the US, with more concern than that. I also,
of course, have the quasi-self-interested concerns outlined above.
And am not best pleased now to have to decide between Yang (1975) on
the one hand, or Bennet (1964), Delaney (1963) or Klobuchar (1960) on
the other - none of whom has a significant chance of nomination
anyway. Maybe I should stretch my standards a bit and consider
Patrick (1956) or Steyer (1957). (Warren is the other remaining Baby
Boomer. The Silents still in are Biden, Bloomberg and Sanders; the
remaining Millennials Buttigieg and Gabbard.)
Joe Bernstein
--
Joe Bernstein <***@gmail.com>
Joe Bernstein <***@gmail.com>