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"New asteroid has a chance of impacting Earth in 2032"
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Lynn McGuire
2025-01-30 20:03:37 UTC
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"New asteroid has a chance of impacting Earth in 2032"
https://www.chron.com/news/space/article/asteroid-hit-earth-20063120.php

“The odds of a recently discovered massive asteroid hitting Earth within
the next seven years are shockingly not zero. Dubbed 2024 YR4, the
approximately 150-foot-wide asteroid was first spotted by the Asteroid
Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on Dec. 27, 2024. Based on
preliminary data, the near-Earth object (NEO) has a 1.2 percent chance
of crashing into our planet when it makes a very close approach on Dec.
22, 2032, landing it at the top of NASA's Sentry Risk Table and the
European Space Agency's (ESA) NEO Impact Risk List.”

Don't look up !

Lynn
Cryptoengineer
2025-01-30 20:57:00 UTC
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Post by Lynn McGuire
"New asteroid has a chance of impacting Earth in 2032"
   https://www.chron.com/news/space/article/asteroid-hit-
earth-20063120.php
“The odds of a recently discovered massive asteroid hitting Earth within
the next seven years are shockingly not zero. Dubbed 2024 YR4, the
approximately 150-foot-wide asteroid was first spotted by the Asteroid
Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on Dec. 27, 2024. Based on
preliminary data, the near-Earth object (NEO) has a 1.2 percent chance
of crashing into our planet when it makes a very close approach on Dec.
22, 2032, landing it at the top of NASA's Sentry Risk Table and the
European Space Agency's (ESA) NEO Impact Risk List.”
Don't look up !
Lynn
Its a lot smaller the Dimorphos, the asteroid hit in the DART mission.
That was over 150 meters across.

BOTE doodling....

The DART impact changed Dimorphos' velocity by about 2.7 mm/s
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05878-z

Guess: This asteroid is 1/3 the diameter, ie 1/27
the volume, and 1/27 the mass.

A similar impact would change its velocity by 72.9 mm/s

That's 262 meters/hour, or 6.2 km/day, or 2300 km/y

Earth's radius is about 3963 km.

So, even if it were precisely centered on the Earth,
a DART sized impact could make it miss in about 16
months.

So, it probably won't be done, but doing something is
actually kind of feasible.

There's a good chance a DART style impact would entirely
disrupt this small asteroid.

pt

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